The purpose of this essay is to analyse facts, evidence, reality, and history for the case; it has nothing to do with racial narcissism, chauvinism, or feelings of ethnic superiority over others. The United States of America may be a global superpower, but it wouldn’t be if it weren’t the Hegemon of the Americas. Being a regional hegemon is more about stability and the capacity to project influence and power in the area so that the hegemon’s interests or point of view maintain stability and security than it is about morality or altruistic commitment.

China is the regional hegemon in Asia, particularly the South China Sea, while maintaining its historical role as a “Merchant State.” Russia is the regional hegemon in the Balkans, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe. There are no regional or sub-regional hegemons in Africa alone. In the past, Nigeria assumed the role of pseudo-hegemon, projecting its power and influence beyond its borders and stabilizing/interfering in the affairs of its West African counterparts and beyond. However, this was during the Oil Boom, when Nigeria had enormous wealth linked to the global oil boom during its period of military dictatorship.

Naturally, I ought to have listed “NIGERIA” as the Potential Hegemon that ought to take the helm of sub-Saharan Africa, but NIGERIA has lost time. Time and era are two of the most crucial elements of civilisation and development. Nigeria’s sabotage is primarily due to internal factors rather than the bogeyman theory; this is nearly the same reason why India is unable to compete with China and has turned into a “Nigeria” of Asia with its enormous potential, which means little if they remain fictional/aspirational. There are a number of reasons why Nigeria was unable to keep up the pace and assume the sole role, most of which are internal factors rather than external forces.

However, potentiality is an illusion; potentials are like dreams that might never come true; they don’t alter countries; actualisation does. Putting in the work while accepting reality and making reasonable compromises to take one step closer is how we’ve seen China rise.

The Historical Foundation: Lingual Soft Power

History confirms that the Yorùbá language served as a pre-colonial lingua franca, functioning similarly to Latin in Europe.

“Yorùbá was the Lingua Franca of most of southern Nigeria (Antonio brassio monumenta missionaria africana (1st series, 14 vols:lisbon, 1952-85, 8 no 135: Columbin de Nantes, Sao tome, 26 Dec 1940;)

In fact, by the time that the trade with Europe started, the Yorùbá language had become the lingua franca for peoples beyond the Yorùbá ethnic homeland.

Writing about the Aja kingdom of Allada; In 1668, Dapper said: “Their own mother tongue is by them little regarded; therefore, they seldom speak it; but they are obliged to speak mostly Alkomijs which in their country is regarded as a noble language.”

One Father Columbin of Nantes visited the coast of West Africa as head of the French mission in 1634 and 1640.

In a letter to the higher authorities of the mission, he wrote as follows about the Benin kingdom:

“In this kingdom, the people may very easily be led to embrace the faith, and priests can live here with greater ease than in other parts of Guinea because of the healthy climate … Their language is simple; it is called Licomin language and is universally used in these parts, just like Latin in Europe”.

Europeans along the West African coast called the Yorùbá- Lukumi, Lucumi or Alkomin (and endless variations of it) and the Yorùbá language Alkomijs, Licomin (and other variations).

Thus, Dapper’s Alkomijs and Father Columbin’s Licomin meant the same — the Yorùbá language.

The use of the Yorùbá language, therefore, linked together not only all parts of the Yorùbá homeland but also areas extending beyond. As earlier pointed out, the Aja country, commercially, was essentially part of western Yorùbáland. Such an expansive cultural and linguistic continuum provided great opportunities for commercial development.

Contrast in Lingual Power: Organic vs. Imposed

A critical distinction in African hegemony is the method of linguistic spread. While Yorùbá influence has historically been organic, other regional powers relied on state-led “unification.”

The “Northernization” Policy and Hausa Imposition

• Ahmadu Bello’s Vision: Under the Late Sardauna of Sokoto, Ahmadu Bello, the “Northernization Policy” was implemented to create a monolithic Northern identity (Arewanism) to compete with the South.

• Institutional Imposition: Hausa was established as the official regional language alongside English. It was mandated in primary education and civil service recruitment, effectively imposing it on hundreds of non-Hausa ethnic groups in the Middle Belt and Central Nigeria.

• Modern Resistance: In recent decades, a “Middle Belt consciousness” has emerged to challenge “Hausa-Fulani hegemony.” Efforts are currently underway in Central Nigeria to revitalize indigenous languages and undo the cultural erasure caused by decades of administrative Hausanization.

The Yorùbá Cultural Continuum (Organic Hegemony)

The Yorùbá language is the most widely spoken language in West Africa, second only to Hausa.

• The Contemporary Creative Economy: Today, Yorùbá influence is surging globally via music (Afrobeats) and religion (Ifá/Santería/Candomble). This “soft power” is voluntary; global audiences seek out the language to engage with the culture, creating a robust, non-coercive foundation for leadership.

Unlike Hausa or Swahili, which were often promoted via State Policy or administrative unification. Although Swahili is the most widely spoken language in Africa, especially in East Africa, the subsequent governments of these nations imposed this language on their indigenous people because they wanted to promote Pan Africanism and unity. Additionally, Swahili is a hybrid Bantu-Arabic Creole.

Yorùbá influence is expanding organically through the global “Creative Economy” (Afrobeats, Fuji, Juju).

Global Reach:

With approximately 60 million native speakers and a significant diaspora, the language’s relevance is amplified by digital consumption. High-profile icons (e.g., Asake) drive millions of non-native listeners to engage with the language via search engines and translation tools.

Due to its increasing usefulness and relevance, particularly in music genres like Afrobeats, Fuji, Juju, and more, Yorùbá is quickly emerging as the most influential African language in the world. Additionally, the language’s use by global musical icons of Yoruba origin has increased demand for the language. I conclude that if Asake had 1 billion listeners worldwide, an estimated 800 million of those listeners would attempt to recite his lyrics. As a result, they would probably say Yorùbá words or statements, and roughly 400 million would use search engines for Yoruba-native language translators to find the context or meanings of these Yorùbá words in his lyrics.

And this includes native Yoruba speakers. If 90% of Africans are able to speak the language, the number of native Yoruba speakers in Africa is probably close to 60 million, and the number of diasporic Yoruba speakers outside of Africa may be close to one million worldwide.

Yorùbá As Liturgical Language in Religio-cultural World

In Ifá and Orisa religion, Candomble, and Santeria, the Yorùbá language is primarily a significant language. With common or loaned deities like Ògún and Esu, the Yorùbá Language is also basic in Vodun, Ewe, and Fon divination systems. The need for the Yorùbá language is growing as the religion spreads throughout the Americas and the Caribbean, and more universities may begin to create departments of Yorùbá language, linguistics, and religious/Orisa studies.

The Geographic Advantage: The Coastal Hegemon

The center of gravity in African development is shifting toward “Coastal States.” The Yorùbá homeland possesses the most strategic maritime assets in West Africa.

Key Infrastructure & Ports

The Guinea Coast or the Bight of Benin and Yorùbá region plays the most significant and crucial role in this trans-border region, with Lagos becoming the West Africa Commercial and Industrial zone.

• Maritime Command: The region controls roughly 300km of Nigeria’s coastline (¾ of the national total) plus vital corridors in Benin and Togo. It stretches from Badagry/Port Novo (Ajase) to Itsekiri’s Escravos from Dahomey Basin to The Niger Delta.

• The T-Junction: Lagos serves as the nexus for the Abidjan-Lagos Coastal Highway, the Lagos-Calabar Highway, and the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, effectively linking the Sahel to the Atlantic.

The Economic Corridor: The Association of Gulf of Guinea Nations (AGGN)

The Association of Gulf of Guinea Nations (AGGN) is proposed for the indigenous Nations/Civilisations that inhabit the West African coast. Most important of these are the Yorùbá - Fon&Adja&Gun - Ewe-Ashanti/Twi/Fante - Akan Confederation, as in the European Union (EU) and ASEAN.

The proposed AGGN represents a borderless economic cluster (Yorùbá – Fon – Ewe – Akan) that de-emphasizes colonial linguistic barriers (French/English) in favour of indigenous commercial continuity.

As Western Nigeria, the Republic of Benin, Togo, and Ivory Coast form a seamless “Trans-Border” or “Borderless” African trade and commercial network, the historical civilisational relationship between Yorùbá and their neighbours that was hindered by French-British Colonialism and French-British Lingual Franca may be erased or de-emphasized. The barrier may be broken with the AfCFTA and African single currency, ECO.

Ports, industries, skilled labour, cross-cultural contacts, and logistics would all be seamlessly connected by one corridor.

Hegemons would emerge through comparative advantage and competition, even though all participating entities would benefit collectively.

The Greater Lagos Economic Cluster

The “Greater Lagos” concept represents the transition of the Lagos metropolitan area into a trans-border “Economic Development Cluster and Corridor.” By integrating the industrial heartlands of Ogun State and the untapped maritime potential of Coastal Ondo, this cluster is poised to become the most significant industrial and demographic engine in West Africa over the next several decades.

The Geographic and Demographic Scope

Unlike the administrative boundaries of Lagos State, the Greater Lagos Cluster functions as a contiguous economic zone.

• Lagos Core: The financial and commercial nerve center.

• Ogun Industrial Corridor: Host to the highest concentration of manufacturing plants in West Africa (Agbara, Sagamu, and Mowe/Ibafo).

• Coastal Ondo: The frontier for deep-sea port development and expanded oil and gas extraction.

With a population density that is already the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, this cluster provides a massive, youthful consumer market and a concentrated labor force.

The “Aeropolis” of Coastal Africa

The vision of Greater Lagos as a continental Aeropolis hinges on its role as a multimodal logistics hub.

Aviation Hub: Strategic positioning to connect East African markets (Addis Ababa, Nairobi) with West African capitals.

Trans-Atlantic Gateway: The shortest flight paths and shipping routes connecting Africa to Brazil and the Caribbean, re-establishing historical and commercial “South-South” ties.

Infrastructure Synergy: The integration of the Lekki Free Trade Zone, the Lekki Deep Sea Port, and the proposed Dangote/Lagos airport projects into a unified logistics network.

The Creative Economy: Lagos is already the global capital of Afrobeats and Nollywood. In the “Greater Lagos” model, this expands into tech-enabled creative hubs, gaming, and digital exports, drawing significant venture capital and international collaborations.

Energy, Oil, and Gas: With the Dangote Refinery and potential new discoveries and processing plants in the Ondo coastal area, the cluster is moving from being a consumer of energy to a primary producer and refiner for the entire continent.

Industrialization and Manufacturing: The “borderless” nature of the corridor allows for seamless supply chains between the raw materials and ports of Ondo/Lagos and the processing factories in Ogun. This synergy reduces the “cost of doing business” by centralizing the ecosystem.

Future Outlook and Global Investment: Over the next two decades, Greater Lagos is expected to:

Surpass National Growth: Act as an independent economic entity with a GDP rivaling mid-sized European or Southeast Asian nations.

Magnet for FDI: Attract global sovereign wealth funds looking for exposure to Africa’s urbanization.Urban Governance Challenges: Require a unified regulatory framework between the three state governments (Lagos, Ogun, Ondo) to manage transportation, waste, and security across state lines

Conclusion

While Nigeria as a whole has faced internal stagnation (the “Nigeria of Asia” comparison to India), the Yorùbá region remains the engine of actualization. For the region to stabilize, it requires a “Class Captain”—a hegemon capable of projecting stability and economic interest.

The Yorùbá homeland, through its combination of: Industrialization (Petrochemicals and Manufacturing), Logistics (Deep Sea Ports and Superhighways), Soft Power (Language, Music, and Religion) is uniquely positioned to serve as the regional superpower that defines the future of the West African sub-continent.

The Yorùbá region’s strength lies in its Coastal Hegemony and Organic Soft Power.

The Yorùbá homeland is positioned not just as an ethnic territory, but as the “Class Captain” of West Africa—representing the sub-region in the global community through economic actualization rather than the “potentials” of the past.

Before British colonisation, there was no peace in precolonial Nigeria. The British encountered warring kingdoms and empires, but they pursued the policy of maintaining or bringing about peace to the Polity in order to govern what would eventually become Nigeria following the Berlin Conference in 1884–1855. While the British were in Nigeria, they were able to maintain peace, but it would soon come to an end. Seven years after Nigeria gained her independence, the people resumed their hostilities. British colonisation only put a halt to the unresolved conflicts in precolonial Nigeria.

Nigeria has experienced sporadic crises since gaining its independence, including riots, political unrest, civil war, and military coups. However, in the 1970s, an ideologically motivated group known as Maitasine emerged in Nigeria for the first time since the popular Fulani Jihad of Gobir (Sokoto) in 1804. This group was led by a radical preacher from Cameroon named Alhaji Muhammad Marwa, who commanded followers in Kano and other Northern Nigeria.

Then, in early 2000, following Nigeria’s return to civilian and democratic leadership, Yusufiyah began, giving rise to JAS, also known as Boko Haram. In 2012, JAS underwent its first split, giving rise to rival Alqaeda-affiliated ANSARU Islam. In 2016, IS-affiliated ISWAP emerged, and Nigeria now has JAS (BH), ANSARU Islam, ISWAP, Darul Islam, and, more recently, Lakurawa (likely ISSP/ISGS), Mahmuda, and JNIM.

JAS and ISWAP have operated in the North-East and Lake Chad for decades, while ISWAP has been more involved in a few incidents outside of the North-East, such as the Abuja-Kaduna Train attack and the Kuje Prison attack. Meanwhile, ANSARU has terror cells in Okene/Ebiraland and other parts of Kogi State, and it has been involved in numerous bank robberies, high-level kidnappings, and attacks on police stations that have spread to Ondo, Edo, and Ọṣun States and Abuja.

The Siege on the Heartland: The Encroachment of Jihadi Terror into the South-West

By June 2022, the Yorùbá heartland’s operating theatre had begun when a Jihadi terror strike occurred for the first time in the South-West at St. Francis Catholic Church in Owo, Ondo State.

Despite the Fulani Militia’s attacks on sedentary farming communities in the predominantly Christian Middlebelt of Nigeria, which can be characterised as an ethno-religious genocide campaign, Kwara and Kogi-West/Kogi State were spared for decades. Though Yorùbáland had been caught up in the increased Fulani Herders’ hostilities against farmers and communities in Yorùbáland, these began to change by 2023. This led to the emergence of Sunday Igboho as a non-state actor and pro-Yoruba separatist sentiment, which ultimately led to the creation of the Western Nigeria Security Network, codenamed Amotekun, by states in the South-West Geopolitical Region. At this point, there had never been any known religiously motivated jihadi attacks in the South-West or Yorùbáland in general.

In February 2026, the Woro community in Kaiama Local Government Area of Kwara State was invaded by a Jihadi Militant Group suspected of being members of Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), also known as Boko Haram, led by a faction leader named Sadiku. The Jihadists killed 178 people, mostly men, and took 200 people, mostly women and children, hostage before marching them into an unidentified location. JAS has since released a video of the abducted individuals. This marks a significant milestone in JAS's operations in Yorùbá World and its nearby neighbours, Nupe and Borgu, to the north.

The RUGA Legacy: Land Usurpation, Settler Colonies, and the New Frontier of Terror

Organised Fulani Militia gangs, commonly known as bandits, began launching serious attacks on Kogi-West, also known as Okunland, the Yorùbá-speaking region of Kogi State, in 2023. These gangs would soon spread into Kwara State, particularly Kwara South and Kwara North, which border Kogi West to the east and Niger State to the north. I looked into what could have caused this and why now. The responses I received were incredibly implausible and might be regarded as conspiratorial.

The Late President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration attempted to pass the RUGA and Water Resources Bills in order to create Federal Government-owned colonies for Pastoralists or nomadic herdsmen. However, the bills were thwarted because they were highly contentious, raised suspicions, and were seen as a sinister plot to usurp Indigenous or native lands from peoples in order to create Settler Colonies for future resource conflicts.

The Ebira-Fulani Alliance: Political Proteges and the Destabilization of Okunland

Alhaji Yahaya Bello, the former governor of Kogi State, was reportedly consumed by his desire to see his protege and Ebira Kinsman succeed him.

He reportedly welcomed this idea from the Federal Government and reported that Fulani herders were welcomed in large numbers in the state, with truckloads of cattle and herders pouring in every day.

More significantly, he allegedly did not give Ebiraland to the migrant herders, but rather Okunland/Kogi-West for this experiment.

There were serious repercussions:

The population of many villages and towns where Fulani herder migrants settled drastically changed, and they established settlements they called “Zango.”

In order to communicate with these communities, the locals had to learn Hausa and Fulfude languages.

With a dark “Ebira-Fulani Alliance,” he was able to effectively make his kinsman and protege to succeed him as governor of the state during an Ebira-Ebira transition.

This analysis has political implications.

The Greater Fulani Ambition: Mapping the Geopolitics of Expansion in the Niger-Benue Trough

From Futa Jalon and Futa Toro along the Sene-gambia River to Macina and Tukulor Emirate in Mali along the River Niger, and Madibbo Adama’s raids and push for access to the Benue Valley along present-day Adamawa, an unmistakable pattern can be seen throughout history. Perhaps because Okunland from Lokoja is immediately west of the River Niger, it’s a continuum of “Greater Fulani,” but this doesn’t mean that all Fulani in the world “agree” or even had consensus about this goal or ambition.

The “Bandit” Euphemism: Unmasking the Fulani Militia’s War on Sedentary Communities

According to the BBC documentary “Bandit Warlords of Zamfara,” “Bandits” are semi-independent or independent Non State Militia gangs that seek financial and territorial rewards for their acts of terror.

The Cognomen term “Bandit” is simply a euphemistic term for “Fulani Militia Gangs.”

They are merely material-driven militias, but they use ethnic sentiment or chauvinistism to defend their actions by pointing to the marginalization and criminalisation of Fulani people, the lack of commitment on the part of the Federal Government of Nigeria to improve their society and people, and actions against communities hostile to the Fulani and their nomadic culture.

They aim to replicate their demands and rationale for their acts with the Amnesty Program and the Niger Delta Militant. These bandits’ operational threat has been in the north-west, where Hausa and Fulani communities are localised or entangled. The Chief of Army Staff, the Late General Taoreed Lagbaja, conducted significant offensive theatre operations against bandits in the North-West when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed the presidency of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023.

The current president is from the Yorùbá Speaking Nation of Nigeria, so it’s possible that they expanded their operations to Kwara-Kogi to send a message to the Federal Government of Nigeria, which they resent. However, they chose not to do so when the late President Muhammad Buhari was in office.

Things Yorùbáland Needs to Do:

• The Western Nigeria Security Network, codenamed Amotekun has to sign an operational memorandum of understanding with the states of Kwara, Kogi, and Niger for cross-border operations.

• Demand for divisions or permanent military bases along the Kwara-Kogi axis.

• Demand that the establishment of State Police be accelerated.

• Every South-West State, including Kwara and Kogi, is required to acquire Reconnicance drones as well as other security and military equipment.

• In order to respond to emergency situations more quickly, all South-West states, Kwara, and Kogi states should grade or build roads in remote and rural areas through RAAMP.

• The Security Trust Fund, which South-West announced under the DAWN Commission, needs to be realised.

• Amotekun should receive more training and recruiting, as well as better enumerations and a better reward system.

• Ungoverned areas, such as border towns, which have frequently been disregarded by governments, ought to have more security and be easier to reach.

• SOS technology for prompt action in emergency situations.

• To reduce fatalities from ambushes, State Governments must invest in heavily armoured vehicles and Armoured Personnel Carriers from Pro force.

• Activities related to illegal mining should be stopped.

• The South-West Geopolitical Zone and the Benin Republic need to establish a security network or collaboration.

• To build cooperation with the police and military, the South-West States, Kwara, and Kogi States must support and encourage local vigilante groups and militia groups like OPC and Agbekoya.

• The Creation and registration of private security firms similar as PMC Wagner or Black Water should be funded or pursued by a few prominent and affluent Yorùbá patrons.

The Flaw of 1963: How the OAU Failed the African Agency

A period of self-determination for all African populations and the ratification of existing empires, kingdoms, or states at the end of the 19th century by referenda would have constituted true decolonisation of Africa. An illustration of the Swiss Confederacy, Malaysia-Singapore, or India-Pakistan-Bangladesh. This would have rectified the mistakes made during the 1884–1885 Berlin Conference, which initiated the legalisation and formalization of African colonisation. The OAU (now AU) adopted the “Policy of maintaining the Colonial borders to prevent conflicts in Africa,” which has shown to be flawed since easy paths aren’t always the best ones.

Inherent Instability: The Link Between Artificial Borders and Intra-State Conflict

It is crucial to remember that the majority of conflicts in Africa are “Intra-State Conflicts and Wars” (conflict within the state/countries) rather than “Inter-State Conflicts” (conflict between 2 states/countries) or “Wars”. African nations are the least stable in the world, with the majority of them being devastated by sporadic deadly conflicts within their borders. The majority of African militaries focus most of their efforts/capabilities on preventing intra-state conflicts than inter-state conflicts. Due to the lack of national identities in the majority of African countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, these nations have frozen ethno-national identities. As a result, the constituent groups that make up each African state continue to exist in ethno-identical Civilizational states similar to those found throughout the world.

According to data from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, between 1946 and 2021, Africa has experienced over 300 distinct internal armed conflicts, while the number of "traditional" interstate wars (country vs. country) remains in the single digits.

The majority of African states, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, lack the homogeneity that should serve as the foundation for national identity. Africa is the world’s most diverse continent, so it is impractical for every ethnic group to have its own ethno-state. Nevertheless, Africans have never been granted the right to self-determination to choose their statehood, and their opinions have never been acknowledged. In the hearts of Africans themselves, the majority of sub-Saharan African nations are imaginary and fake states. Contrary to the widely held belief that Europeans divided Africa and took control, many African communities were pleased to sign treaties with colonial states to defend themselves against local bullies, who are typically rival city states or other African groups or kingdoms.

The idea of “Protectorate” in Africa was about “Formal Protection allyship” from other Africans and rival Colonial Powers seeking administrative influence in the region.

Europeans then sought to end all wars and conflicts in Africa in order to administer and rule the Africans using arbitrary borders of convenience.

Africa is the world’s most linguistically and genetically diverse continent, in addition to being the most culturally diverse.

Decolonizing the Map: Why Skin-folk is Not Kinfolk

The notion that all Africans are the same negroid with melanin is absurd; it would be equivalent to claiming that all Asians are the same, which would mean that Han Chinese, Japanese, Javanese, Koreans, or all Europeans are the same.

Africans are not “Black” in Africa: Despite their skin colour, some African groups are more genetically similar to some European groups than to other African groups; people in Africa have their realities in their ethnic groups rather than racial realities; even the idea of being African is rarely felt; they are only classified as “Black” when they are among other races like White or Asian.

Within Nigerian borders, the cultural distinctions between Yorùbá and Kanuri are similar to those between Yorùbá and Germans.

From Colonial Constructs to Civilizational States: A Path to African Stability

Not only was Africa colonized and even occupied in the 19th century, but the Korean Peninsula was also occupied and colonized by its neighbours at various points in history, as was the Qin Dynasty of China, British India, and other places. Colonisation is not a recent phenomenon.

If I were to expand on this, I would even suggest that Russians colonized Mongolia, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans. It’s possible that Balkan nations were the last in the world to gain Independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev.

Today, With a projected nominal GDP, Poland’s economy is now expanding significantly and quickly.

Africa’s Lost Time: How Asian-Style Self-Determination Could Have Saved a Continent

The British Empire and its colonies in Africa would be viewed as “colonisation” on the basis of White vs. African/Black racial realities because most people would not consider what the Russians did during the Soviet Union, the Japanese during the Imperial Japanese Empire, or the Roman/Greek Empire as colonisation based on race and skin colour, forgetting that peoples of the same race could colonise one another and had nothing to do with racial differences. However, Asia and Europe only lost time, not self-determination, in contrast to Africa, which lost two crucial components of development due to colonisation: time and self-determination.

Post Colonial Africa VS Post Colonial Asia

When Imperial Japan gave up its colonies in Korea, China, and the Philippines, they simply returned to their pre-colonization state and lost only TIME. British India, on the other hand, sought self-determination as soon as it gained independence by dividing into Hindu-majority India, Muslim-majority Pakistan and Bangladesh, Singapore and Malaysia, and China returned to the state of its Qin Dynasty.

African nations such as Kanem-Borno, Sokoto Caliphate, Yorùbá Country (Ibadan, Èkìtì federation of Kingdoms, Ijebu Kingdom, New Òyó Kingdom, Ijesa, and many more), Benin Kingdom, Dahomey, Ashante Empire, Fante Confederacy, Kingdom of Kongo, Emirate of Nupe, Zulu Empire, Macina Emirate, and many more simply abandoned their agencies and refused to return to their pre-colonization state.

Rather, under the Organization of African Union, or OAU (later AU), they decided to keep the artificial borders and countries that Europeans had formed without the consents or context of Africa.

Africans would have pursued the creation of new states with their consent and contexts (self-determination) if they had followed different paths like Asians and Eastern Europe. The Emerging States might have been:

Through a treaty or charter, a number of Yorùbá Kingdoms and City States may have consented to join a single nation state. They may also be willing to unite with the Benin Kingdom and the Dahomey Kingdom to create a nation that resembles Switzerland, Belgium, or the United Kingdom.

Perhaps comparable to the United Arab Emirates, the Sokoto Caliphate (along with other Emirates) had a Unity Treaty or charter with Kanem-Borno to form a single state.

The Fante Confederacy and the Kingdom of Ga Adangbe may have had a treaty or charter with the Ashante Empire/Akan to become a state. And so on

Beyond Artificial Borders: The Case for African Self-Determination

Today, Africa’s borders would have been different, and its political reality would have been different, more stable, more progressive.

• African agency, circumstances, consent, self-determination, and their own realities would have all played a role in the formation of these states.

• The fundamental national identities of these African states would serve as the foundation for their nations.

• These African nations would have established foreign and domestic policies.

• These African nations would have had more advanced social, economic, political, and governmental systems, such as parliamentary, monarchical, Islamic, secular, theocratic, free market, socialist, etc.

• In order to promote Pan Africanism through self-determination, it would have been more practical for these African states to establish a trade and/or defence pact akin to ASEAN, the European Union, or NATO. Compared to the current ECOWAS, EAC, AU, etc., these unions would be more feasible.

Moving Forward: Why It’s Not Too Late

• The African Union should have a conference overseen by all of its partners, including the EU, rather than embracing the policy of upholding colonial borders.

• Sub-Saharan African groups ought to be gazetted, and the body should acknowledge their sovereign representatives as human agencies and the voices of their people.

The following outcomes should be adopted by the body:

• Reverse all of Berlin’s borders from 1884.

• Depending on their circumstances and reality, emerging nations can either adopt or design their own indigenous African political systems and structures or systems of government and structures.

• Ratification of statehood with African settings and consent through self-determination.

• Encourage ethnic groups with comparable pre-colonial experiences to form states. For example, ethnic groups with histories of belonging to the Songhai, Mali, Ashanti, or Sokoto empires, as well as the Yoruba Nation (Yorùbá kingdoms and city states), Kwararafa Confederacy, and Kanem-Borno Empire, should form union treaties or charters to merge into countries or states.

The requirements should include proximity and economic viability of the emerging states, Contiguous territories and borders, well defined borders, and a stable and permanent population.

• Ethno-Political Composition: Minority rights and autonomy must be accorded to dominant ethnic groups in emerging states. Alternatively, states that are heterogeneous—that is, lack dominating ethnic groups—must establish federal constitutions and autonomy.

What the African Borders, Countries and Map may look:

The intricate "triangular" power dynamics of Nigeria—Region, Religion, and Ethnicity—will be discussed in this analysis, along with the possibility that the 2023 "Muslim-Muslim" (M-M) ticket was a singular historical anomaly rather than a new, long-lasting rule. A reassessment of the "North" as a cohesive political voting group is probably going to occur in 2031 when a Southern president is replaced by a Northern one.

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Based on existing electoral and demographic patterns. By 2031, the "Monolithic North" illusion that has been dwindling for decades may entirely collapse.

The theory that 2031 will mark the definitive collapse of the "Monolithic North" is supported by shifting electoral data and the deep-seated ethnic-regional tensions.

Nigeria's stability has long relied on the "North" acting as a singular political unit to balance the "South," but the 2023 elections demonstrated that this consensus is fraying.

Here is a detailed breakdown of the factors:

1. The Breakdown of the “Monolithic North”

The concept of a unified “North” has been under pressure for decades, but the 2023 elections showed significant fractures:

• The NW/NE Split: The North-West (NW) and North-East (NE) have often vied for supremacy. While the NW (Hausa-Fulani) has traditionally produced more Heads of State, the NE (specifically the Kanuri-dominated Borno/Yobe axis) has developed a distinct political identity. In 2023, the APC’s VP choice (Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri from the NE) was a strategic move to secure that bloc independently of the NW.

• The Middle Belt Factor: States like Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa , Adamawa, and parts of Taraba, Gombe, Kebbi, Niger, Borno, Bauchi and Southern Kaduna (often referred to as the Middle Belt) are predominantly Christian or religiously plural. In 2023, these areas showed a high propensity to vote outside the traditional "Northern" consensus, with many leaning toward Peter Obi (LP) or sticking with the APC.

2. Demographic and Electoral Statistics

To understand the “magnitude of the tussle” described, we must look at the numbers.

Estimated Population by Major Ethnic Groups (2024 projections):

3. The 2031 Religion and Regional Scenarios

• North-West (NW): The Hausa-Fulani heartland. With over 22 million registered voters in 2023 (the highest of any zone), it has traditionally dictated Northern terms.

• North-East (NE): Dominated by the Kanuri and other minorities. The emergence of the “Borno Power Bloc” (exemplified by VP Kashim Shettima) shows a region no longer willing to be a mere appendage to the North-West.

• North-Central (NC/Middle Belt): A religiously pluralistic zone that has increasingly aligned with Southern interests when Northern candidates are perceived as “extremist.”

  

4. The 2031 Tipping Point: The “Northern Christian” Strategy and Risks

If the APC selects a "Muslim from NW" in 2031, it will probably lose the election because even the Kanuri bloc would oppose it on the basis of NW/Hausa-Fulani hegemony rather than Islam, just as the Non-Hausa/Fulani bloc in the entire North would oppose it on the basis of religion, ethnic/regional bloc, or both (in the majority of Christian-dominated parts of the Middlebelt). The South may have almost a single bloc because it has no stake in the Presidency position, the South-West takes a Kingmaker role in national politics and development while being more regionally focused.

Therefore, selecting a Northern Christian as the APC's presidential candidate in 2031 may be path to its Victory and may give rise to a Christian-Christian ticket as the Vice President from the South would probably be a Christian.

APC might survive by fielding a Northern Christian is a potent strategic scenario. This move would:

• Isolate the NW Hardliners: It forces the Hausa-Fulani bloc to either support a “Northern Brother” who is Christian or risk losing power entirely to a Southern-Middle Belt Coalition.

• The Christian-Christian (C-C) Ticket: If the successor is a Northern Christian, the VP would logically be a Southern Christian (from the SE or SS) to maintain the regional “North-South” balance. This would be a mirror image of the 2023 M-M ticket and could theoretically consolidate the “Christian vote”.

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5. Risks for the North-West

The North-West risks “Political Isolation” if it maintains an uncompromising stance on producing a Muslim successor.

• The "Gang-up" Math: If the North-West (29%) insists on producing a Presidential Candidate, the remaining 71% of the population (represented by the South, Middle Belt, and North-East) has a clear mathematical path to victory through a "Coalition"

• The Kanuri Factor: If the NE (Kanuri) decides that their interests are better served by a non-Hausa-Fulani alliance, the NW loses its “Islamic Solidarity” shield.

• The “Yorùbá Muslim” Precedent: President Tinubu’s success proved that a Southern Muslim Candidate can win if they are perceived as “inclusive” or “non-extremist.” A conservative NW Muslim candidate in 2031 will not enjoy this “Southern Grace” and will likely face intense scrutiny from the South and Middle Belt regarding “Islamist tendencies”.

Conclusion: The “Co-Kingmaker” Path

The most stable outcome involves the North-West adopting the “Yorùbá Model”—sitting back, providing the votes, and acting as a co-kingmaker with the South-West. If they instead push for absolute supremacy, the “Monolithic North” will not just shatter; it will likely be outmaneuvered by a coalition of the Middle Belt, North-East, and Entire South.

International Interests and Deplatforming

The International community, which views Nigeria as too big to fail, would likely support any coalition that prevents the country from sliding into the religious extremism or regional secession that a polarized 2031 election might trigger.

International interests prefer stability.

A candidate perceived as a "religious hardliner" would likely face significant diplomatic friction, as the global community prefers the "Yorùbá Model" of religious pluralism for a country as volatile as Nigeria

This could manifest in the form of election monitoring, support for civil society, or pressure regarding security cooperation and sanctions.

Nigeria has already been named a Country of Particular Concern, and the Trump administration has adopted a pro-Evangelical posture. Israel has expressed interest in "safeguarding Christians" from "Radical Islamists" in Nigeria.

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This new development suggests a return to a more pragmatic, “remedial” interpretation of self-determination.

And here’s why:

• Since the 1960s, the international community (particularly the African Union) has adhered to the doctrine of uti possidetis — the idea that colonial-era borders must remain unchanged to prevent continental chaos. The Israeli recognition effectively challenges this “post-colonial consensus” by prioritizing Functional Statehood over Territorial Integrity.

• The Rise of “Transactional Self-Determination”, with this return of self-determination more transactional than history remembers self-determination. Strategically positioned along essential global shipping lanes, Somaliland’s strategic importance renders it in a prime position to leverage, and give what they have to get what they want.

• To understand the significance of Somaliland’s recognition in 2025, it is essential to look at how Western powers first fought to “set” the principle of self-determination. In the 1800s, self-determination (then called “popular sovereignty”) was the principle in which many countries today were created out of the Ottoman Empire, a rival to the West.

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As the world watches the historic recognition of Somaliland by Israel, the region has officially become a centrepiece of a new game.

The reports of South Sudan considering recognition are historically poetic. As the only African nation to successfully exercise the right to secede in the 21st century (back in 2011), its support would break the African Union’s “taboo” on border reorganization, and potentially cause a domino effect:

If more African nations (one a former secessionist state itself) recognize Somaliland, it undermines the AU’s authority to dictate the “indivisibility” of borders. This could revitalize self-determination movements in regions like the Tigray (Ethiopia) or Ambazonia (Cameroon).

Hence, The AU has promptly rejected any recognition of the sovereignty of Somaliland.

What’s at play here?

It appears the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa is being redrawn. Somaliland is breaking away from the Federal Republic of Somalia, a country ridden with instability. But with Somaliland’s decades track record of better stability and its command over the Bab el-Mandeb (one of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints ), Somaliland is thought by many to be a valuable ally for Israel and others.

From issues with Somalis from Somalia, which Somaliland is breaking away from. The Trump Administration has said he doesn’t want Somalis in America, showing a clear dislike for Somalia; to reports that Somaliland is considering working with Israel on the resettling of displaced Gazans.

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Beyond its deep-water port, Somaliland’s coast is a hub critical mineral deposits essential for 21st-century tech. Control of this corridor also offers a direct counter to the Houthi-controlled waters and Iranian influence in the Red Sea.

For the people of Somaliland, the 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU and the 2025 Israeli recognition prove one thing: Recognition is the only currency that matters.

This historic shift marks a major turning point for the “right of self-determination” for Somaliland and perhaps for Geopolitics across the Globe.

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This article focuses on the South-West Geopolitical Region’s economic integration, which breaks down state borders, tames state government bureaucracy, and channels individualism and pocketization of developments towards coordinated, collective, and significant developments.

The term BASED, which stands for Borderless Alliance of South-West For Economic Development, refers to the concept of seeing the South-West as a single economic entity that extends beyond state-level economic development or footprint, where Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Èkìtì, Ọṣun, and Òyó States are not collaborating.

The concept is to have a single regional development plan that goes beyond state-level plans.

In my earlier piece, “Nigeria’s Yorùbáland Geo-Economy: Prospects and Plans,” I divided Yoruba into two economic zones: the Western Corridor, which includes Lagos, Ogun, and Òyó, and the Eastern Corridor, which includes Ondo, Èkìtì and Ọṣun.

How Does BASED Operate?

We must first recognise that governments around the world do not have limitless resources or assets to carry out every development they imagine; in fact, this is the reason why some nations or states are wealthier than others. Additionally, the revenue capacities of the South-West States (IGR, FAAC, and 13% Oil Derivation) differ, and as a result, the states’ budgets and capacities for project implementation varies.

The South-West Development Commission (SWDC), O’dua Investment Company Limited (OICL), the DAWN commission, and state governments

Each of the Six (6) states that make up the South-West Geopolitical Region has 16.66% of the OICL.

OICL’ revenue has increased significantly, and it now pays each state year after year.

OICL Q1 2025 Financial Report

• Total comprehensive revenue of ₦82.26 billion, up 773% due to revaluation gains (₦9.23 billion in 2023).

• Operating revenue increased by 81% to ₦7.15 billion from ₦3.95 billion in 2023.

• Dividend of ₦518 million, up 21% from 2023.

• Dividends totaling ₦3.63 billion since 2013.

Additionally, the establishment of a “South-West Security Fund” under the DAWN commission was one of the outcomes of a recent summit between the Governors of the Six (6) South-West states.

The goal of BASED is to extend this template beyond security to include financial and economic development.

With BASED, all South-West States can contribute counterpart funds to specific projects that will have a high return on investment for the collective economy in a Public-Private Partnership Model, thereby realising economic development with outstanding footprints across the region.

These areas are where BASED can be focused

• Marine and Blue Economy

• Agribusiness and SAPZ

• Logistics and Transportation

• Oil, Gas and Energy

• Light Manufacturing and Technology

• IT, Creative and Digital Economy

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Marine and Blue Economy: ONDO Multipurpose Deep Sea Port:

Ondo State has sea access but no sea port, and because of that, Yorùbáland’s Eastern Economic Corridor lacks a Sea Port.

In the Eastern Economic Corridor, Ondo State is the closest to the sea among the Hinterland States of Èkìtì and Ọṣun, yet it lacks a sea port.

Ondo, Èkìtì, Ọṣun, and possibly any other South-West States, SWDC, Odua Investment Company Limited, The Federal Government, and Private Investors can all contribute counterpart funding to the construction of the Ondo Multipurpose Deep Sea Port in presumed equity through a PPP arrangement:

Assuming the Total Cost is $1.5B the distribution could be as proposed below:

• Ondo: 20%

• Èkìtì: 15%

• Ọṣun: 10%

• SWDC: 5%

• OICL: 3%

• FG: 7%

• Private Investor(s): 40%

With the construction of the Port, The states of Ọṣun and Èkìtì will not only have access to the global trade and maritime network through the sea port in Coastal Ondo, but they will also have a stake in the revenue generated from all of the port’s activities, as well as employment opportunities for their citizens. Logistics and transportation policy & investment also have direct consequence to this likewise is the improvement of warehousing and especially cold storage which will ensure our export becomes competitive and provide our citizens better options in the global market.

Logistics And Transportation: Railway and Warehousing:

A freight and cargo railway that connects the hinterlands of Èkìtì and Ọṣun States with the Ondo coasts to the port and warehouse for product import and export.

These multipurpose warehouses have long vehicles, cold storage vehicles, dry and cold storage facilities, and other features for product distribution and point-to-point transportation.

For export, interconnected rail network across the aforementioned states will be quite benefitail here. The goods will be transported from these aggregation depots’ stations to Ondo Sea Port; for import, they do the opposite. Likewise, the investment in electricity & cold storage including well located warehousing will have a direct incremental impact on our export potential. Increasing the shelf life of good not only provide more opportunities for exports/imports, it also increase the viability of varied options/businesses locally. These will have a variety of implications on the South-West economy and create jobs for the region’s expanding youth population.

Along the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway Project, a Y-shaped standard track railway runs from Ọṣun to Èkìtì to Ondo Coast. The left branch of the Y connects to Òyó” while the I branch connects to Ogun.

Agribusiness and SAPZ

Using the BASED initiative, participating states in the South-West, FG, private investors, OICL, SWDC, DAWN commission, AFDB, IDB, and other local and international partners, such as UNICEF and FAO, may designate to establish a total of 5000 hectares of “Agro Industrial Cities” in three different South-West locations. These cities will be designed and planned for arable lands for specific crops with comparative advantages, such as cocoa, palm oil, yams, vegetables, and chicken, along with their Special Processing Zones.

Establish Commercial Scale Livestock Development Centers as well as Ranches, Modern Abattoir centers, packaging, cold storage and distribution.

After that, these goods can be transported to the Ondo Port via logistics along with the critically proposed cold storage & warehousing which both benefit greatly from electricity investment and integration.

Agribusiness and SAPZ —> Logistics and Transportation —> Maritime Trade/Sea Port

Oil, Gas, and Energy

Using the BASED initiative, the South-West States, SWDC, DAWN Commission, OICL, FG, and Private Investors or Partners could contribute counterpart funding for the construction of an oil and bitumen refinery in Ondo.

Ondo State, in Agbabu, has the second-largest bitumen reserve in the world, however it has not yet been explored for commercial use. As a modifier for Agbabu natural bitumen (ANB), polyphosphoric acid (PPA) significantly enhances its performance. A 2016 study found that adding PPA, especially up to 6%, improved the bitumen’s properties by making it harder (reduced penetration), more heat-resistant (increased softening point and viscosity), and less temperature-sensitive. Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy confirmed the PPA modified the bitumen’s chemical structure. The research concludes that PPA modification can extend the service life of this abundant Nigerian resource for applications like road construction.

Assuming $14 billion is the total cost of a bitumen refinery with a capacity of 500,000 barrels per day.

• Ondo: 20%

• Ọṣun: 10%

• Èkìtì: 8%

• FG: 10%

• SWDC: 7%

• OICL: 3%

• Private Partners/Investors: 42%

Having Ondo State’s bitumen exploration and refinery, which is located near its deep sea port, produces refined bitumen, which is crucial for building road pavement all over the world.

This would establish Ondo as the world’s leading hub or producer of bitumen, which will have a variety of repercussions on both the participants’ and Ondo’s economies. It will also draw foreign exchange and foreign direct investment, and it will provide high-paying jobs for people in the South-West.

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Light Manufacturing and Technology

Using the BASED initiative; producing goods aimed at final consumers or manufacturing components like cotton clothing and linen, leather and shoes, lithium battery cells and solar panels; some food items like Patent and Packaged Fast Typical Yorùbá Omi Obe in Cans for the Diaspora Yorùbá Community; iron or metals for manufacturing; snacks like Dodo Ikire, Chips, Aadun, Adire, Aso Ofi/Oke and their clothes, Yorùbá Patented Trado-medicine, etc.

Commercial resources of high-quality lithium can be found in Kwara, Òyó, and Ogun States, along with light manufacturing facilities. The Ondo Deep Sea Port can be used for the exploration, extraction, and processing of lithium to make solar panels and battery cells.

Additionally, top multinational corporations in the automotive, telecommunications, aircraft, AI and robotics, and arms industries may demand high-quality heavy manufacturing components. We don’t necessarily need to produce every part of an automobile, aircraft, vehicle, or piece of equipment, but we can produce the few parts that we have a comparative advantage in and are of the best quality, which would be highly sought after by the world’s leading businesses. Alternatively, we can consider investing further in assembling plants which will, in time, grow to manufacture and expand their capacity in time. This is a common approach which Vietnam and other crucial manufacturing nations started with.

IT, Creative and Digital Economy

Using BASED Knowledge And Innovation Parks and Clusters can be established, an example is the ongoing Èkìtì Knowledge Zone in Èkìtì State. In Ọṣun we have a relatively low cost state which can likewise be developed in this direction to cater for our entrepreneurial needs. These states can, with the integration into Lagos & Ogun develop Yoruba land further with comprehensive prosperity that reaches every corner of our land.

In Conclusion

With the advent of AI, this has provided us an opportunity to build services and scale without the burden of time and to an extent with less skill/knowledge. But what we cannot escape is the requirement of electricity, internet service and the investment in all the aforementioned areas. These investment are required to support one and other for the realisation of this dream.
We are aware that this dream begins with a step. We have observed the patience and systematic approach the South-West Development Commission (SWDC), O’dua Investment Company Limited (OICL), the DAWN commission, and state governments have taken to guide our nation towards today. We ask that continue on this path but with greater responsibility and focus for our people. We are capable of this and more.

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Africa is neither a monolith nor a country. We analyse issues including (geo) politics, social and economics, focusing primarily on Yorùbá and West African perspectives. We appreciate your engagement and feedback on our content.

By Olúwáṣèyí

The security architecture of Nigeria and the wider West African region is under severe strain from a complex mosaic of non-state armed groups. While often perceived by the public as a monolithic threat, these actors are driven by distinct ideologies, goals, and operational methodologies. This analysis distinguishes between the primary militant factions, establishes Northern Nigeria’s core Sahelian identity as a critical factor in the conflict, and examines the southward expansion of jihadist groups towards Nigeria’s Yorùbá heartland and the coastal states. This trajectory carries profound implications for regional stability and international engagement.

A Typology of Non-State Actors in Nigeria

The landscape of instability in Nigeria can be broadly categorised into two groups: religiously motivated Islamist militants and actors driven by other factors.

1. Islamist Militant Groups

These organisations are unified by a fundamentalist interpretation of Islam and the ultimate goal of establishing an Islamic state governed by their strict interpretation of Shari’a law. Key groups include:

• Boko Haram (Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, JAS): The original and most notorious jihadist franchise in Nigeria, known for its extreme violence against civilians and state targets. Its core leadership and support base are predominantly Kanuri.

• Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP): A Boko Haram splinter faction that pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS). While equally brutal, ISWAP has demonstrated more strategic acumen in governance and resource control. It retains a Kanuri core but has pragmatically integrated Hausa and Fulani fighters to broaden its reach.

• Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM): An Al-Qaeda affiliate and the most potent transnational jihadist force in the Sahel. Its leadership and core are predominantly Fulani (Peul) and Tamasheq (Tuareg). Its presence has been reported in Nigeria, with cells identified as far south as Kwara State, the northernmost region of Yorubaland.

• Ansarul Islam: A Fulani-composed group aligned with JNIM, representing the jihadist radicalization of a segment of the Fulani youth. It serves as a key vector for JNIM’s influence in border regions.

• Emerging & Associated Factions: The militant scene is further fragmented by hyper-localized factions that operate as satellites to the major groups. These include Lakurawa and Wolowolo (Fulani-dominated militias aligned with JNIM and active in Sokoto and Zamfara), the Islamic State in the Sahel (ISS) (a rival to JNIM), and other cells like Mahmud, which typically consist of Fulani and Hausa fighters and blur the lines between banditry and jihadism.

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2. Non-Religiously Motivated Militant Groups

These actors, while exacerbating insecurity, are primarily driven by secular motives such as economic gain, ethnic nationalism, or resource control.

• Bandit Groups: Predominantly in the North-West, these criminal syndicates engage in mass kidnapping, cattle rustling, and pillage. While occasionally adopting religious rhetoric, their core driver is profit.

• Pro-Secessionist Groups (e.g., IPOB): Active in the South-East, these groups seek political separation from the Nigerian state, with their militancy rooted in ethnic grievances and political marginalisation.

• Fulani Militia: Operating across the Middle Belt and Southern Nigeria, these militias are involved in targeted killings of indigenous populations. While often framed in ethno-religious terms, their actions are strategically conducted for the purpose of land grabbing and demographic replacement in these contested areas.

• Niger Delta Militants: Historically focused on resource control and protesting environmental degradation and economic neglect in the oil-rich Niger Delta.

Despite their different drivers, all these groups challenge the state’s monopoly on violence, resulting in significant loss of life, widespread displacement, and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Ideological Schisms and Strategic Objectives of Sahelian Jihadists

A critical distinction lies in the ideological stance of the jihadist groups. Although they share a common goal of a Caliphate, significant doctrinal differences dictate their tactics and internal conflicts. They collectively view the secular Nigerian government as illegitimate and regard non-Muslims as Kuffar (unbelievers), subject to Takfir (excommunication), which they use to justify violence, enslavement, or forced conversion.

The schism between JAS (Boko Haram) and ISWAP is particularly illustrative:

• JAS Doctrine: Adopts a takfirist stance against Muslims who do not subscribe to its specific doctrine. It considers Muslims living under the Nigerian state or even under ISWAP rule as apostates (Murtadun), making them legitimate targets.

• ISWAP Doctrine: Takes a more pragmatic, if still extreme, approach. It generally considers Muslims to remain Muslims unless they are directly serving the state as soldiers, informants, or government officials. ISWAP regards JAS as Khawarij (a historical reference to Muslim extremists who rebel against the established order), signalling a deep theological and strategic rift.

This ideological dispute is compounded by a struggle over the “shadow economy.” Control of territories, smuggling routes, and illicit markets generates significant revenue. ISWAP, in particular, has grown financially robust, reportedly funding other IS affiliates globally. The conflict over territory is thus both an ideological and an economic imperative, fuelling their jihadist campaigns.

Similar conflicts are visible elsewhere in the Sahel. In Mali and Burkina Faso, JNIM and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) clash over territorial control and ideological nuances, such as the appropriate timing for implementing Shari’a law and sectarian interpretations of theology.

Northern Nigeria: The Sahelian Frontline

Geographically and culturally, the core Northern states of Nigeria—Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, and Sokoto—are an integral part of the Sahel region. This is not merely a geographical classification but a strategic reality. These states sit squarely within the Sahelian climatic zone and are historically and culturally linked to the wider Sahelian world through the legacies of the Kanem-Bornu and Sokoto Caliphates. The porous borders, shared ethnic and linguistic ties with neighboring Niger and Chad, and similar socio-economic conditions make this area a natural extension of the central Sahelian conflict zone. The instability in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso directly fuels the crisis in these core Northern Nigerian states, with militants, ideologies, and weapons flowing freely across ungoverned spaces. Recognising this belt of states as a Sahelian frontline is essential for understanding the transnational nature of the jihadist threat.

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The Middle Belt: A Contested Frontier and Zone of Suffering

Situated geographically and politically between the core Muslim-majority North and the Christian-majority South, the Middle Belt is not merely a transition zone but a deeply contested frontier. It constitutes the northernmost extent of what can be considered the “Southern” or “non-Sahelian” political and cultural sphere of Nigeria. Historically, this region has borne the brunt of overlapping conflicts, serving as a bloody arena where the tensions between the Sokoto Caliphate’s expansionist history and the indigenous communities crystallized.

The suffering of the Middle Belt’s ethnically diverse, predominantly Christian and animist communities is rooted in a long history of subjugation. In the pre-colonial era, the region was a primary target for slave raids by the Sokoto Caliphate. The colonial administration’s policy of Indirect Rule further entrenched this dynamic by empowering Northern Muslim emirs over Middle Belt communities, forcibly incorporating them into a political structure they had historically resisted. In the post-colonial period, this pattern has persisted through systemic political marginalization, economic neglect, and the imposition of a “Northern” identity that erases their distinct cultural and religious heritage.

This historical context is the backdrop for the current campaign of violence. The conflicts are often wrongfully/simplistically framed as “farmer-herder clashes,” but evidence points to a more strategic objective. Attacks by militant Fulani herders on indigenous communities are characterized by targeted killings, designed to terrorize populations, force displacement, and seize control of territory. The primary driver is not mere resource competition but a concerted effort at land grabbing and demographic replacement, aimed at permanently altering the ethnic and religious landscape of this strategic frontier.

Consequently, there is a growing and potent political movement within the Middle Belt seeking a definitive schism from the “North.” Prominent socio-political organizations and leaders are actively advocating for the creation of new states or regions—such as the “Middle Belt Region”—to escape the political domination of the far North. This is not merely an administrative demand but a profound quest for political self-determination and security. The goal is to forge an independent reality within Nigeria where their unique identities are protected, their security is prioritized, and their historical grievances are acknowledged. The expansion of jihadist violence into this already volatile region therefore risks not just escalating a local conflict, but accelerating a fundamental re-ordering of Nigeria’s internal geopolitical boundaries.

The Geopolitical Context: International Withdrawals and Regional Repercussions

The strategic calculus of Sahelian jihadist groups has been profoundly influenced by recent international events.

• The Afghanistan Precedent: The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s subsequent takeover served as an energetic inspiration for jihadist groups worldwide. In the Sahel, groups like JNIM and IS-Sahel interpreted this as evidence that sustained insurgency can compel Western powers to disengage. The subsequent expulsion of French forces and the drawdown of other international counter-terrorism missions from the Sahel have reinforced this narrative of victory.

• Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy: The U.S. appears to be recalibrating its engagement in West Africa. Lacking the strategic economic interests (like oil) that define its presence in the Middle East, U.S. policy may be shifting towards a strategy of containment. This involves establishing a strategic buffer in the coastal West African states—Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. The potential establishment of a larger U.S. consulate or military footprint in Lagos signals a intent to fortify these coastal nations against the spillover of Sahelian instability.

This prospective U.S. military presence in coastal West Africa carries significant consequences. In the context of Northern Nigeria, which is deeply embedded in the Sahelian crisis, such a presence is likely to be perceived not as a stabilising force, but as an imperialist incursion and an anti-Islamic “Crusade.” This perception could serve as a powerful recruitment tool for groups like ISWAP and JNIM, potentially leading to a dramatic surge in militancy and insecurity as a form of deviance and resistance.

This dynamic of Northern solidarity with the Sahel was starkly illustrated following the 2023 coup in Niger Republic. When the Nigerian President, Bola Tinubu, considered leading a ECOWAS-sanctioned military intervention to restore democratic order, he faced immediate and severe backlash from powerful Northern political and traditional elites. Figures like the former Vice President and the Sultan of Sokoto, alongside Northern senators, openly opposed the move, framing an intervention as an attack on their “kinsmen” in Niger. This opposition escalated to the point where explicit threats were made, warning that any military action against Niger would be considered a “declaration of war” on Northern Nigeria itself, a statement that bordered on sedition and highlighted the profound schism between national policy and regional allegiance. This incident starkly demonstrated that the Nigerian state’s capacity to project power and influence in the Sahel is critically hamstrung by its own domestic fragility. The federal government cannot pursue a robust regional security policy if such actions are perceived as a betrayal by its own northern population, effectively ceding veto power over national foreign policy to a region whose sympathies are deeply enmeshed with the Sahelian crisis.

The Southern Expansion: The Threat to Yorubaland and the Coast

The most alarming trend is the southward drift of jihadist activity. The confirmed presence of JNIM cells in Kwara State demonstrates that the ideological and operational reach of Sahelian jihadists now extends into the northern fringe of Yorubaland. This region has historically been more stable than the far north.

This expansion is driven by several factors: the pressure from military operations in the core north, the search for new resources and recruitment grounds, and the strategic objective of linking with sympathisers in other regions. If this trajectory continues, the next frontier of conflict will be the Middle Belt and South-West Nigeria, threatening the country’s most populous and economically vital areas. The consequence would be a national crisis of unprecedented scale, directly targeting Christian communities and Muslims who oppose their extremist ideology, and potentially causing a 2000% increase in insecurity, as the original text suggested, through widespread deviance and resistance.

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Conclusion

The militant threat in Nigeria is not a single problem but a syndicate of distinct yet sometimes overlapping crises. The ideological-driven jihadists of the Sahel, with Northern Nigeria as their southern beachhead, represent the most existentially dangerous vector due to their transnational nature and totalitarian goals. Their expansion is synergistically enabled by the parallel campaign of land grabbing and violence by Fulani militias in the Middle Belt, creating a pincer movement that threatens the nation’s core. The withdrawal of international forces from the central Sahel and a potential U.S. pivot to a coastal containment strategy risk further inflaming tensions in Northern Nigeria while doing little to halt the groups’ territorial advance. The reported infiltration into Kwara State is a clear warning that the conflict is escaping its traditional boundaries. Without a coherent, regionally-led strategy that addresses the root causes of instability and effectively counters both the ideology and the shadow economy of these groups, the threat will continue its march towards the vulnerable and politically pivotal regions of Southern Nigeria and the coastal West African states, with devastating humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.

As always I implore you to observe the words below:

It’s okay to be different.

It’s okay to be you.

It’s okay to feel like, indifferent and hate towards others.

It’s okay to be as human as every other group across the world.

It’s perfectly reasonable to want to be independent of others on lands that are yours.

As an African, it’s okay to be just another human being.

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Àṣírí Ọ̀rọ̀

Africa is neither a monolith nor a country. We analyse issues including (geo) politics, social and economics, focusing primarily on Yorùbá and West African perspectives. We appreciate your engagement and feedback on our content.

By Olúwáṣèyí

A. Economic Activity: Should airports be prioritised over high economic activity, traffic, and demands? Is it a chicken or an egg question?

B. A Comparative Analysis of Global North and Global South Income Parity:

• Using the United States, United Arab Emirates, and sub-Saharan Africa (especially Nigeria) as case studies, examine how average national income affects flight economy, traffic, demands, and viability. Could the masses in a continent, nation, or subregion with low average incomes desire or be able to afford flight travel?

C. Priority Scale: Road, Water, Air/Flight, and Railway

• Which of them ranks highest on the priorities scale appropriate to our circumstances? Roads, waterways, interconnected railroads, and airports?

• For economic reasons, airports in Yorùbáland’s Western Corridor—Lagos-Ogun-Òyó—make more sense than those in the Eastern Corridor.

• What should be the priorities of the Eastern Yorùbáland corridor and why airport is a misplaced priority.

A. The economic activity resulting from services, trade volume, industrialization/manufacturing, and commercial business activity decides whether an airport or sea port is viable.

B. It is clear that the Global South’s standard of living, HDI, per capita income, and many other human indices are significantly lower than those of the Global North.

The parity is symbolic of the sky and the ground

Since air travel is more expensive than land transportation on average, most people in the Global South would rather travel by road and train than by air for financial reasons.

Indeed, if a survey were to be conducted in the Global South and North asking people if they had ever taken a flight in their lifetime, I’m confident that the vast majority of people in the Global South would say they had never taken a flight.

This would be a stark contrast to the percentage of people in the Global North who would say the same.

Therefore, why should State Governments use limited resources to undertake such a misguided priority project while ignoring projects that would better suit the economic circumstances of the society in which they live, projects that would have a greater impact and promote sustainable growth and development, and projects that, with the exception of a few Nigerian states, do not require international airports.

Since Africa’s landmass is much larger than that of Europe, the United States, and many parts of Asia, the distance travelled is greater. However, the majority of Africans prefer land transportation for economic reasons rather than the lack of airports or aeroplanes; therefore, the solution is not to build more airports that they will not use, but rather to raise the HDI, national per capita income, standard of living, etc.

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C. Road, railroad, and air are in order of priority.

These two situations are present in the South-West Geopolitical Zone: low economic activity with no vitality to support it is worse than high economic activity with subpar or nonexistent airports.

The latter is present in Yorubáland’s Western Economic Corridor (Lagos-Ogun-Òyó), while the former is present in the Eastern Economic Corridor.

Nigeria has six international airports, but MMIA in Lagos accounts for more than 80% of all air travel in the country. This is due to both economic activity in Lagos and its surrounding area and a lack of activity in the corridors where the other five international airports are situated.

Lagos, however, has begun construction of a new international airport in Lekki, while FG has begun the complete rehabilitation and reconstruction of MMIA. Since Ogun State has become a major industrial and manufacturing hub in Nigeria, home to several manufacturing facilities and businesses, the ongoing construction of an airport in Ogun State—which is nearly complete—and its proposed deep sea port are not out of priority.

The Lagos infrastructure has been neglected for decades and has become a significant burden for the state. With Ogun State’s proposed deep sea port development and ongoing airport, the entire Western Economic Corridor of Yorùbáland will prosper even more. Lagos has been the only one to rely on without offering complimentary funding to upgrade its facilities like Tin Can and Apapa Sea Port as well as MMIA.

With permission from FG, the State Government of Òyó State has started the process of upgrading the current local airport into an international airport.

An international airport in Ibadan might serve the nearby states of Kwara and Ọṣun and bring in some respectable traffic. In stark contrast, States In contrast to the Western Economic Corridor of Yorùbáland of Lagos-Ogun-Òyó-Kwara, the Eastern Economic Corridor of Yorùbáland-Ọṣun (Centre), Èkìtì, Ondo, and extending to Okunland in Kogi has low economic activity. As a result, industrialization, manufacturing, and services should take precedence over the need for airports. Regrettably, the State Government has started construction of its Agro-Cargo Airport, which is expected to be underutilised due to low economic activity.

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Rather of investing limited funds in building new local airports or converting current ones into international ones, Yorùbáland’s Eastern Economic Corridor should prioritise:

• Enhancing SME/MSME

• Investing in Religio-Cultural Tourism and Hospitality to UNESCO standards: Using historical, religious, and cultural sites for the Diaspora Community, such as Ifá Temple and Holy City in Ile-Ife, Sango Timi Shrine, Erin-jesa water fall, etc

  Using the hospitality sector that supports them through PPP template

  Ikogosi Water Spring in Ikogosi Èkìtì State is a case study.

• Agro-Industrialization: Large-scale investments in agriculture and its value chain, such as farm settlements and clusters, agro-industrial parks and logistics, financing and subsidising farm inputs, farm loans to Co-operative societies, educating farmers about modern agriculture and 21st-century techniques through seminars and extension services, offering the best farm inputs—such as high-yielding seeds and fertilizer—and aggregating offtake/buy directly from farmers for storage, among other things, Rural road and connectivity investments through RAAMP, as well as basic rural facilities like PHCs, elementary and secondary schools, water projects, national grid electrification, or the sachetization of green energy through solar farms, storage facilities, cold and dry, etc.

• Investment in the Technical, Skill, and Service Sectors:

  Technical colleges should be updated, provided with funding, and reorganised to meet the demands of the 21st century. Special emphasis is needed in skill areas such fashion design, such as Osogbo and Èkìtì Adire, Aso Ofi, leather, tailoring, etc.

  Young graduates’ interest and ventures in the fashion industry, particularly in design and tailoring, are clearly on the rise, but many of them lack the funds to buy the heavy industrial equipment they would require once they graduate.

  The government can close this gap by building some Fashion Workshop Hubs in its financial capitals where these diligent apprentices could receive Pay-to-Rent Per Work-rate/Hour depending on the machine. This Pay as You Use Model would not only provide jobs for these teeming skilled youths but also empower them to have better revenues, make it easier for them to thrive, and be a state-owned business enterprise that generates revenue.

  People frequently recall the early days of GSM and Internet service, when buying a network SIM card was highly costly and many people who wanted Internet access would go to cyber cafes or call centres.

• Digital Economy:

  Engineering, AI, Robotics, Virtual/Augmented Reality, Blockchain, machine learning, and other aspects of the digital economy/services are also popular among the Youths. If intentional policies are aimed at this ecosystem, Yorùbáland has the potential to become one of the world’s leading centres and the Silicon Valley of sub-Saharan Africa.

  Concerned about my future after graduating from Obafemi Awolowo University a few years ago, a few members of FHG or Neo Life approached me and offered to teach me some of these skills as a way to empower young people in Nigeria, where there is a severe shortage of jobs.

  There are thousands of stories about how this group and its members have taken advantage of the anxieties, fears, zeal, ambition, and passions of many young people who are eager to learn digital skills.

  However, the government has not paid close attention to this and has not offered an alternative ecosystem to take in these bright young people, so they remain victims of these exploitative organisations.

  Establishing Technology Incubation Hubs in each LGA in Yorùbáland would help to address this issue. By providing conducive learning environments, these hubs will help to unlock the creative and digital economy in Yorùbáland.

• Logistics and Transportation Services:

  Regionally coordinated railway investments in Yorùbáland will release enormous economic benefits instead of “Agro-Cargo Airport” or just airports. Emerging industries require distribution networks for both raw and finished goods, therefore building a state-of-the-art goods and passenger railway across Yorùbáland will have repercussions.

  Lower the cost of raw and completed product transportation to lower inflation, generate employment within its ecosystem. Transportation systems that are easier to use, roads that are more durable and long-lasting, fewer travel fatalities, and improved safety all encourage industrialization because of the large number of raw and finished goods that can be delivered more quickly and at a lower cost.

  The railway will stimulate trade and commerce, facilitate the flow of commodities, goods, and services, as well as skills, and establish population clusters across trade and economic centres. It will also improve the inter-city connectivity of commercial hubs, cities, and towns. Additionally, it will improve the HDI, lower poverty, and raise regional per capita income.

  The proposed Ondo Multipurpose Deep Sea Port Development has failed to draw private investments because of concerns about investors’ faith in its economic viability, despite the fact that the Eastern Yorùbáland Economic Corridor merits at least a Deep Sea Port in Coastal Ondo State (Ilaje). Economic activity that would support the sea port’s import-export activity, industries’ and manufacturing enterprises’ demand for raw materials, and the export of their final products—the main lifeline of the marine economy—is still lacking in the Eastern Yorùbáland Economic Corridor.

  The sea port will be dormant and receive little use or patronage from shippers and cargo in the absence of strong economic activity. Apart from Lagos Ports, other ports in coastal Nigeria are also subject to this.

Lagos Ports depends on the Western Yorùbáland Economic Corridor (Lagos-Ogun-Òyó-Kwara), which is economically viable because of the GDP-PPP and the presence of manufacturing and industrial firms in the corridor.

The Yorùbá Coastal stretch of Ondo State (Ilaje) was always neglected or underutilised.

Until the 1470s, when Portuguese traders made contact with Eko (Lagos), Commercial activity then began on the Lagos island, drawing many Yorùbá itinerant traders from Ijebu, Owo, Ilaje, and even Edo/Benin later in the 16th century. Lagos and Badagry gained even more prominence in the global transatlantic commerce network by the time of the Transatlantic Slave commerce. When slavery was outlawed and palm oil and other legal trades began to take place, Lagos ports became even more important.

In comparison to Lagos Island and its environs, the coast of Ondo, or Eastern Yorùbáland, has a lower population now due in large part to under-utilisation and neglect. The proposed Abidjan-Lagos Highway and the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, however, might be the catalyst for the impending transformation.

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Genesis

The history of banditry in the North-West spans several decades, nearly a century, but the most recent rise is distinct, widespread, and more violent. The Federal Government Administration under President Buhari was when it all began. Originally transhuman cattle herders, Fulani gangs primarily formed into militia groups and besieged Hausa communities, particularly those in remote rural areas with challenging terrain. They used motorcycles in a swamp tactic, murdering hundreds of people and kidnapping many for ransom.

Communities that do not pay taxes run the risk of being destroyed or massacred and having their access to farms curtailed. They also impose levies on farming communities. Conflicts between Fulani traditional herders and Hausa traditional farmers were the beginning of the most recent banditry upsurge in the Northwest.

Numerous Fulani herders said that they were marginalised by Hausa communities, state governments, and even the Nigerian government.

They also claimed that they were subjected to discrimination and that they were forced to continue using their antiquated herding methods.

In the middle of cooperation for shared interests and advantages, these bandits developed into rival organisations. They are territorial and engage in conflict over territory, and they may already be connected to the Global Jihadi Operation Network.

It is challenging to determine their degree of involvement with the expanding Religious Ideologically Driven Militant Groups in the Sahel, such as JNIM, ANSARU, BH, ISGS/ISIL/ISWAP/IEGS, particularly when it is unclear whether they enforce Shari’a law in areas under their control and influence or whether they engage in Dawah in those areas.

Kogi West (Okunland), which is next to Èkìtì State, Akoko in Ondo State, and Kwara State, is where the banditry in Yorùbáland began. Three prominent Ọba in Èkìtì State were ambushed a few years ago; two of them were slain and the third managed to flee.

Residents of Èkìtì communities were being kidnapped, and farmers were being murdered on their land.

However, after their first failure, bandit groups might have modified their infiltration strategies through Èkìtì because of the state government’s prompt response and military intervention.

Their shortcomings, however, would be influenced by geography; Èkìtì is a heavily hilly region with connected towns, communities, and villages.

The development of the typical swamp technique, which involved a huge number of motorcycles and logistics supplies, would have been hindered by the hilly terrain. The Savannah grasslands and plain terrains of Kogi West and Kwara State are primarily comparable to those of North-West bandits, allowing for the movement of logistics.

New strategies would include re-establishing contact with bandits in Kogi West via the Kwara-Kogi borders and maintaining the Banditry Frontier in Kogi West while establishing a new Banditry Frontier in Kwara State via the Niger route.

In order to establish a seamless supply and route, as well as reinforcements for both sides, bandit groups in Niger and Kwara States may be attempting to establish connections with those in Kogi West, which shares a continuous border with Kwara South.

Bandits and their associates find it financially advantageous to operate in this economic hotspot. new money, a new economy, a new ransom pool, and one that is much bigger than Northeastern. For bandit organisations looking to fund their weapon stockpiles through ransomware, the new frontier means a new economy.

Niger State

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Kwara State -

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| Kwara South - - - - - Kogi West

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| Èkìtì State |

Ondo North

Òyó State

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Lagos ( Coast)

• State Governments’ approved and supported Emergency Security Conference should be announced

• Representatives of Kogi and Kwara States Government or Kogi and Kwara States Government should be involved and carried along

• Kwara and Kogi West should be Fully Militarized, with Military FOB set up in strategic locations e.g Kogi-Kwara Border, Kwara-Niger border, Kwara-Oyo border and Kwara-Ekiti border

• Swift codification of State Policing in Nigeria and its Implementation

• Deployment of Unmanned Surveillance Systems and drones in Kwara and Kogi States

• Arming Local Vigilantes, OPC and other Community Militia groups

• Government’s Presence in Kogi West and Kwara States beyond State Capitals.

Western Zone:

• Lagos

• Ogun

• Òyó

• Kwara

• Sahel Market

The Eastern Zone:

There are two branches of Eastern Corridor:

Branch A:

• Coastal Ondo

• Ọṣun

• Èkìtì

• Kogi West

Branch B: From Coastal Ondo →Warri (Itsekiri-land)

Historical Background

O'dua Investment Company Limited (OICL)

The Western Region Development Corporation was the successor to the original Western Regional Production Development Board, and it was responsible for undertaking projects for the development of agriculture and industry in Western Nigeria.

The board's funds consisted initially of grants made to it by the former Cocoa and Oil Palm Products marketing boards.

After 1955, the corporation was financed by the Western Nigeria government. Under its development program of 1955-60, the Western Nigeria government set aside a capital provision of £4·5 million for the corporation. The main emphasis of the original board was on agricultural development, but the activities of the new corporation were much wider in scope. Efforts were made to develop partnership schemes on agricultural projects with co-operative societies and local government authorities.

Besides its agricultural activities - which included plantations for rubber, oil palm, cocoa, citrus and pineapples - the corporation established canning and rubber-processing factories in Ibadan and Ikpoba respectively. The corporation's non-agricultural activities included a first-class catering rest-house in Ibadan.

The corporation also participated both financially and administratively in the direction of a variety of industries, including the manufacture of cement, plastics, metal window frames, asbestos, cement products, aluminum products, pre-stressed concrete, textiles and bedding.

The Western Region Finance Corporation was established in 1955 and took over the functions of the former Western Region Development (Loans) Board. This corporation granted loans for industrial as well as agricultural and commercial projects; it was also empowered to grant loans to non-Nigerians who were in partnership with Western Region enterprises.

The corporation intensified 1st loan activities to farmers, as it realized that short-term agricultural loans were becoming popular, and established 209 local loan boards. These local boards were corporate entities, administering agricultural and fishing loans under the guidance of the corporation.

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Corn mill loans were granted to quite a number of people as this was purely a small-scale industry, usually located near marketplaces where the demand for processed grain was likely to justify the establishment of a mill. Loans were also granted for projects including rubber plantations, poultry farming, textile factories, sawmills, sea fishing and transport; and some local authorities even borrowed from the corporation to finance road tarring, market development and improvements to motor parks.

By 1960, it had granted loans totaling £1·4 million for industrial purposes. In suitable cases, it made direct equity investments in businesses for which indigenous capital was not readily available, and by 1960 it had invested a total of £1·5 million in this way.

The Western Region Development Corporation became O'dua Investment Company Limited (OICL) and acquired some of the Western Region Assets, a conglomerate with significant holdings in the following areas: oil & gas, digital technology, construction & manufacturing, real estate, hospitality, equipment leasing, and agriculture & agribusiness.

Opportunities have also been found and are being investigated by OICL in other important industries, including mining, logistics, energy, and health care. All six states in South West Nigeria own an equal stake in OICL (16.66% of the total).

SWDC, or the South-West Development Commission

The Nigerian Senate enacted the South-West Development Commission (SWDC) Bill, 2024, which aims to serve the six states that make up the South West geopolitical zone: Ogun, Òyó, Ọṣun, Ondo, Èkìtì and Lagos. The commission is a component of a larger plan to quicken development throughout Nigeria's geopolitical regions. Daniel Justus Gbenga, the senator for the Ogun East senatorial district, was the bill's sponsor. In the past year, the Senate has approved four regional commission bills. The North Central Development Commission, the South East Development Commission, and the Northwest Development Commission are additional.

Funding

Funds from the federation account, including donations and gifts, would be allocated to the South-West zone by the Commission for the purpose of addressing ecological, environmental, and developmental issues as well as rebuilding and repairing damaged infrastructure. This framework is similar to other regional development commissions in Nigeria in order to guarantee justice and equity.

Regional Development

The South West Development Commission was established with the primary goal of addressing the region's infrastructure deficiency, which is essential to its development. The money raised would go towards rebuilding and repairing the region's damaged infrastructure. It is anticipated that this will boost economic expansion and raise South West residents' standard of living.

At the same time, the Commission will address regional ecological and environmental issues. Numerous environmental issues, including as soil erosion, flooding, urbanization, industrialization, population increase, pollution, deforestation, habitat destruction, over-exploitation, and uncontrolled bush burning, are present in the South West region.

President of The Federal Republic of Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assented to the Bill in March 2025.

The Bola Tinubu-led Federal Executive Council (FEC) established the Ministry of Regional Development in October 2024 to oversee all regional development commissions, including the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), North-West Development Commission, South-West Development Commission, and North-East Development Commission.

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2025 Budget

The Federal Government of Nigeria has approved the sum of N480.4bn for the South West Development Commission.

“Lagos, Ogun, and Ondo States are coastal states that serve as the ocean's entry points to these two corridors. On the other hand, the Eastern Corridor needs the most attention since Ondo State is necessary to activate it, and the Western Corridor (left) appears to be more economically active than the Eastern Corridor (right)”

Eastern Corridor/Right

Branch A

Since Èkìtì, Ọṣun, and Kogi West depend on Ondo for both sea access and gas/oil access, the revitalised economy of Ondo State will have a direct impact on these areas.

Some Existing or Proposed Projects/Industries In This Corridor:

The Èkìtì Knowledge Zone (EKZ) project will be financed with $80 million granted by the African Development Bank Group. EKZ hopes to generate 26,000 employment, encourage digital innovation and entrepreneurship, and generate roughly $14 million in net economic benefits yearly. To establish Èkìtì as a centre for bringing in and incorporating ideas, talents, and innovations, the project is being enlarged. Fiscal incentives are provided by the EKZ, a state-led and federally financed Special Economic Zone, to entice private sector investment in digital technologies and the value chains of the knowledge economy.

Technology companies and investors will be drawn to the project, which will create an SPV to administer Zone operations and pool funding. EKZ seeks to attract research institutes, corporate back-office activities, fabrication and production enterprises, business process outsourcing corporations, and tech start-ups. In addition to offering pre-seed and seed finance to entrepreneurs, the Èkìtì Knowledge Zone's incubator program will teach young people in Èkìtì and surrounding states in ICT skills upgrading. Targeting almost 19,000 young people, EKZ hopes to get investment commitments from at least 15 businesses, bringing in roughly $10.8 million in income. The Bank's funding will support the construction of world-class infrastructure, such as a 20-hectare green technology park and services infrastructure like roads, electricity, water supply, and wastewater treatment facilities, while also leveraging the programs of other development partners.

The project will foster innovation, develop entrepreneurial skills, and train young people in ICT. It creates the Èkìtì State Innovation Fund to finance entrepreneurship, innovation, and investment at the pre-seed and early development stages and promotes government-enabling policies. The Federal Government has granted the Zone "free zone" status, which entitles foreign investors to free repatriation of capital, profits, and dividends; rent-free land during development; tax holidays; import/export duty waivers; and expatriate quotas. With a dedication to developing an alluring location for innovation, technology, employment, residence, and investment, the Government of Èkìtì State remains a model sub national government.

A purported free trade zone based on technology and information technology in Ọṣun state, which is owned by the three states and lies inside the border of Ondo, Ọṣun, and Èkìtì.

Segilola Gold Refinery In Ọṣun State

SROL is a company, domiciled in Nigeria, that operates the Segilola Gold Project, located in Ọṣun State Nigeria.

• 98,006 ounces of gold in full-year 2022

• 84,609 ounces of gold in 2023

• Expects to produce 95,000 - 100,000 ounces of gold in 2024

"It is Nigeria’s First large-scale commercial gold mine, construction started 2020, completed Q4 2021.

Read more: srol.com.ng/home/about

Branch B

Western Niger Delta will be immediately impacted by the industrialization of the Eastern Economic Corridor/Right, which includes Ondo, Ọṣun, Èkìtì, and Kogi West. In particular, Ale Iwere (Warri), Homeland, and our Warri Brethren. Warri will be immediately connected to the Western and Eastern Economic Corridors by the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, making the trip from Warri to Lagos a straight line.

The Warri North Local Government Area of Delta State is home to the Koko Free Trade Zone. With an enhanced sea port inside the enclave, the zone has a land allocation of 2,327 hectares. Block factories, bakeries, and agro-processing farms are all present in Koko town. Awaritse Nigeria Limited, Ebenco Group, Total Energy, Nigerian Port Authority, Optima Energy, Lusanga Oil and Gas, Sharon Oil and Gas, Green Mark Oil and Gas, and Taurus Oil and Gas are some of the largest companies in Koko's oil and gas sector. These companies deal with petroleum products, petroleum depots, and bulk storage facilities.

The Warri Refining & Petrochemicals Company Limited (WRPC) is situated in Ubeji Community, Warri South Local Government, Delta State. Gas from Warri from Escravos and others are already connected and supplying Gas to Western Economic Corridor and will also be source for the 6,000 km Nigeria-Morocco project will cross 13 African countries along the Atlantic coast and supply the landlocked states of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. It is expected to bring more than 5,000 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Morocco. Escravos is Located within Warri South-West Local Government Area. Specifically, it's situated in the Gbaramatu Island/Omadino area.

The only distinction between the industrialization of Warri and Ondo corridor, is only that Warri is the most eastern. Other than that, they are extremely identical. Both can focus on Transportation, Energy, Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals, Marine Economy in Particular.

Western Corridor

Lagos → Ogun → Òyó → Kwara Corridor is currently the most developed and economically feasible in NIGERIA.

Lagos → Ogun→ Òyó→ Connectivity

Lagos→Ogun Railways, controlled by the States: Purple, Blue, and Red Lines

The Red Line:

It currently runs four daily trips between Oyingbo (Lagos State) and Agbado (Ogun State).

The Ogun State Government has already included a plan in the 2025 budget to expand the Red Line Metro Rail from Agbado to Kajola within the State.

The Blue Line:

• Phase 1 of the Lagos Blue Line Rail: Marina to Mile 2 (finished, commissioned and operational)

• The Phase 2 of the Lagos Blue Line from Mile 2 to Okokomaiko is ONGOING by Lagos State Government.

• Ogun State plan already reflected in its 2025 Budget to Extend of BLUE LINE Metro Rail from Okokomaiko to Agbara/Lusada ( Ogun State)

Purple Line:

The Purple Line is about the 57-kilometer rail line, highlighting its strategic importance and the fact that 17 stations are planned, with five of these located within Ogun State.

The Purple Rail Line is a 57 km electrified rail system that will include 17 stations and seamlessly integrate with existing metro and bus services to enhance connectivity.

It is projected to serve over 300,000 passengers daily, significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions by encouraging a shift from road to rail transportation.

It is designed to run through Redemption Camp, Mowe, Long Bridge, Isheri, Toll Gate, Omole, Ogba, Agege, Iyana Ipaja, Isheri Osun, Igando, Iba, Estate, LASU, Okokomaiko and Ojo.

It would greatly benefit the natives/residents of Ogun and Lagos states, promoting more connectivity and economic prospects.

The Lagos - Ibadan Railway

The Lagos-Ibadan Railway, which is controlled by FG, crosses Lagos, Ogun, and Òyó States. It transports freight from Apapa and Tin Can Ports to Moniya Inland Dry Port in Ibadan, Òyó State.

Some Existing/Ongoing Projects in Western Corridor:

1. Central Food Logistics Hub, Ketu-Ereyun, Lagos State

The Lagos Food Security Systems and Central Logistics Park is a logistics centre under construction in Ketu-Ereyun, between Epe and Ikorodu. When completed, it will be the largest food logistics centre in sub-Saharan Africa. Lagos State Government owns Farmlands in Ogun State.

2. Kajola Wagon Assembly Plant, Ogun State

Milestone in the development of Nigeria's railroads, which will not only provide Nigeria with locally made railroad wagons, but also provide technical support for railroads across sub-Saharan Africa.

The Lagos-Ogun Industrial Axis stands as Nigeria's premier industrial hub, encompassing the bustling metropolis of Lagos and extending into neighboring Ogun State. This region is the beating heart of Nigeria's manufacturing sector, accounting for over 80% of the country's industrial output.

Agbara, located in Ogun State, has become a big industrial hub, hosting some of the largest and medium-scale manufacturing companies in Nigeria. Apart from a pharmaceutical company Pharma Deko Plc, Agbara hosts Unilever, a Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCGs) firm, which recently opened its Blue Band factory there. It also hosts America’s biggest non-oil investment in Nigeria, Procter & Gamble, which in 2014 announced plans to pump $300 million into its factory there.

It is a host to the big biscuit maker Beloxxi, which attracted an $80 million investment from a consortium led by sub-Saharan Africa-focused 8 Miles amid foreign exchange (FX) crisis in the country. The city has also attracted GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Evans Medical Plc and Beta Glass Plc.

Many more manufacturing firms have moved to Agbara in recent times. More investments are also moving to other parts of Ogun State, including Igbesa, Abeokuta, Sango-Otta, Ibafo, Mowe, Ijebu-Ode and Sagamu industrial clusters, all in Ogun State.

3. Inner Galaxy Steel Factory

In Ogun, a Inner Galaxy Group is set to $400 million steel factory in Sagamu, Ogun State. Covering over 100 hectares, this facility will produce hot-rolled coil steel, a vital material for the construction, manufacturing, and automotive industries. The project is set for completion by April 2026 and marks a significant milestone in Industrialization efforts of Yorùbáland and Nigeria.

About 6,500 direct and indirect employees could be employed at the $400 million hot rolled coiled steel factory in Ogun State's Ewekoro Local Government Area. The company, a multinational corporation with significant investments in Asia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and some African nations like Ghana and Angola, is anticipated to start operations in April 2026. The company first entered the Nigerian market in 2005 and produced iron rods for the construction sector.

4. Lekki Free Trade and Olokola FTZ

The Lekki Free Zone, created in 2006, is a modern free zone managed in accordance with international best practices. The zone’s 16,500 hectares are divided into four quadrants and managed by various operators, benefiting from Lagos State’s position as the premier distribution hub in West Africa.

The Lekki Free Zone is located in the southeastern corner of Lagos State, facing the Atlantic Ocean to the south and the Lekki Lagoon to the north. It is bordered by five kilometers of coastline and is 50 kilometers from Victoria Island, Lagos. It is home to Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, Lekki Deep Sea Port, Alaro City and many more.

The Olokola Free Trade Zone (OKFTZ) Enterprise is a public-private partnership of Ogun and Ondo States in southwest Nigeria with IPEM. Its main purpose is to expand the economic base between the two states. Olokola Free Trade Zone is a 20,000 hectares industrial enclave and is designed to facilitate establishment of export oriented industries. OKFTZ Enterprise is currently developing 10,000 of the 20,000 hectares. Aliko Dangote plans to build the largest seaport in Nigeria at the Olokola Free Trade Zone (OKFTZ) in Ogun State.

5. Fashola Agribusiness Industrial Hub

It is emerging as a game-changer in Oyo State’s agribusiness landscape. Spanning 1,200 hectares, this hub is designed to support large-scale agricultural production, processing, and agritourism, creating a sustainable ecosystem for investors, farmers, and businesses in the sector. Already Home to the following:

Friesland Campina WAMCO Nigeria PLC → Dairy production.

Milkin Barn Agro Services Ltd → Grains cultivation and dairy production.

IITA GoSeed → Cassava, cowpea, maize, and soybeans production.

E4 Farms → Crop and dairy production.

BrownHill Farms → Crop production and greenhouses.

Sigma Farms → Cashew production.

Agridrive → Focused on farm mechanisation and cassava processing.

African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) → Driving cassava mechanisation and processing in Oyo State.

Grandir Agribusiness Company Limited → Cashew processing.

Rita Global Resources → Cassava processing.

This strategic investment in Fasola strengthens Oyo State’s agribusiness sector, combining private-sector expertise with government-led infrastructure development.

6. Eruwa Agribusiness Industrial Hub

Òyó State Government has broken ground for a 3,000-hectare agribusiness industrial hub in Eruwa, Ibarapa East Local Government Area of the State. At 3,000 hectares, the planned expanse for the Eruwa agribusiness hub will be three times larger than the Fashola hub, which is 1,000 hectares. The Ijaye business hub is scheduled to be the next point of call for the state government upon completion of the Eruwa agribusiness hub.

Recently, The Òyó State Government a tour of the Rungis International Market in Paris, the second largest wholesale food market in the world which we will replicate in Ijaiye, Ibadan, Òyó State this year. It has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Semmaris, France which is in charge of the market as we prepare to develop a similar one in Òyó State.

7. Ilu-tuntun Business District

The Òyó State Government has also planned to establish a business district in Ibadan, the state capital, creating a commercial corridor that will become a hub of economic activity.The project will be situated in the Akinyele Local Government Area of the state.

3,149 hectares of land have been delineated for the project, with 598.613 hectares earmarked as a resettlement scheme for some of the affected villages. 833.853 hectares had been identified as a developed area, which will be excised from the acquisition, while the remaining 1,717.235 hectares will be designated as the Ilu-tuntun Business District.

The Busy Lagos - Ibadan and Lagos - Ibadan train station are also connected to the ongoing Ibadan Circular Road in this Akinyele LGA.

What Needs to be Done:

The Newly established South-West Development Commission SWDC, DAWN commission, O'dua Investment Company Limited OICL and South-West Governments could work in Synergy to do these:

• Special Focus on Developing the Eastern Yorùbá Corridor ( Both Branch A and B ) to expand further development of the Region and prevent over-centralization of Industrialization in Western Corridor.

• The Development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to attract domestic and global investment in this Eastern Yorùbá Corridor.

Focus areas in coastal Ondo State include the following: the exploration and refinery of bitumen; the marine economy, including the sea food and value chain industries; the Ondo deep sea port; housing and hospitality aimed at the "Greater Lagos Market"; and the energy, oil and gas sectors.

Railway/highway corridor which connects the Ondo Coast (a detour from Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway) with the Hinterland parts of Ondo State, including the landlocked Ọṣun, Èkìtì, and Okun-Land (Kogi-West and Lokoja), with new or existing free trade zones along its path e.g Agribusiness Industrial Hubs/Centers along the Proposed Ondo→Èkìtì→Ọṣun Highway/Railway Corridor ( A diversion from Lagos→Calabar Coastal Highway/Railway) with grant access to non-oil exports via coastal Ondo ports. The Ondo-Èkìtì-Ọṣun Corridor must have had strong economic activity to support import-export demands in the Ondo Port in order for the Ondo Deep Sea Port to be economically viable.

• Float South-West Transport Company, with modern buses and would be active in the Abidjan - Lagos, Lagos - Calabar Coastal Highway as well as other major highways in the region/sub-region.

• Float Mining Company especially Lithium Mining and Processing Factory in Òyó and Ogun States

• Work in Synergy with Federal Government on Cocoa Value Chain Industry using The recently created Cocoa Marketing Board by FG

• South-West Livestock Development - Large scale Cattle/goat farm+value chain. The South-West region accounts for the highest consumption of red meat in Nigeria, with Lagos leading the pack.

Unfortunately, the region has remained consumers without playing any crucial role in the livestock production value This gives the state about 70% of the entire 10,000 to 11,000 cows consumed in South-West Nigeria every day.

• Drone Assembly And Production Plant e.g Surveillance and Security/Military grade Drones as well as Security Airstrips and Bases in Major axis of the Yorùbáland - Ondo-Kogi West, Northern Òyó-Kwara And Naval Base in Coastal Axis for security of the region against Violence threats from Rising Militancy and Jihadism.

River Niger should serve as Natural Boundary and Barrier that separate Yorùbá zone from others.

• Establishment of Institute of AI research and Development

• Establishment of Institute of Yorùbá Studies:

  Funding studies like Yorùbá Orthography, Archeological studies in different Precolonial Yorùbá States to unravel our past and use the knowledge for Nation building in Academics and Research.

• Development of Dams across South-West For Aquaculture, Hydroelectricity and more.

• Development of Oil and Gas explorations in Tongeji Island, Ogun waterside, Araromi among others and the Modular Refineries.

And Many More…

Àṣírí Ọ̀rọ̀

Africa is neither a monolith nor a country. We analyse issues including (geo) politics, social and economics, focusing primarily on Yorùbá and West African perspectives. We appreciate your engagement and feedback on our content.

By Olúwáṣèyí

Abidjan - Lagos Corridor Highway

The $15.6 billion Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Highway, which would require approximately $6.8 billion in private sector finance, is expected to begin construction in 2026 and be completed by 2030. Its goal is to improve trade and promote regional integration in West Africa.

Spanning 1,028 kilometers, the transnational coastal road is scheduled to connect 🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire to 🇳🇬 Nigeria while traversing 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇹🇬 Togo, and 🇧🇯 Benin (connecting Abidjan, Accra, Lomé, Cotonou, and Lagos).

It has 63 interchanges along its course and is intended to be a toll-free road with four to six lanes, with the potential to expand to eight lanes in Lagos.

The Federal Government, Lagos State Government, and the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) would share responsibility for constructing Nigeria's section of the projected Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Highway.

Lagos - Calabar Coastal Highway

Under development, the 750-kilometer Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway would connect Victoria Island in Lagos with Calabar in Cross River State.

It aims to increase connectivity and commerce along Nigeria's coastal areas. The route is intended to travel through a number of states, including Ogun, Ondo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom. Along the highway, railway transit is anticipated to operate.

The Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway is expected to be finished by 2031, with construction having started in March 2024.

President Bola Tinubu is anticipated to launch 30 km of the route by May 25, 2025.

Sokoto - Badagry (Lagos) Highway

Nigeria's Federal Government has officially begun building on the 1,068-kilometer Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway. The project, which begins at the town of Illela in the Illela Local Government Area in Sokoto State, is anticipated to traverse Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Òyó, Ogun, and Lagos States.

The government will have to spend a total of 13 trillion naira on the Lagos-Calabar and Sokoto-Badagry projects, with 52% of the route in the north and 48% in the south. Railway transportation will operate beside the highway in this project as well.

Economic Corridor of this Orita-Meta and Nexus to Yorùbá Civilization

In Yorùbá Orisa Pantheon, Orisa Esu Laalu (Esu Ola Ilu - Esu Wealth of a Nation) is typically associated with Orita-Meta (crossroad/intersection) and markets (trade and commerce). Orita-Meta is the crossroad/fulcrum of three pathways, with Lagos serving as this critical node where Abidjan (Coastal), Calabar (Coastal), and Illela/Sokoto (Sahel) meet to exploit economic/commercial/trade opportunities concentrated in these corridors.

Another significant Orisa/Imole is Olokun, which is typically associated with the ocean/sea, wealth, salt, and glass beads (representing trade). The Abidjan-Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway connects West Africa's commerce, trade, and wealth by passing along the coastal corridor and the sea or ocean.

Greater LAGOS Corridor: The Yorùbá Economic Corridor within Nigeria

The term "Greater LAGOS" refers to a single economic corridor that runs across the hinterland from Lagos to Ogun State and Òyó State, and along the coast from Lagos to Ogun State (Waterside) and Ondo State. The most significant economic corridor in Nigeria is the country's manufacturing capital, accounting for around 89% of all Nigerian manufacturing output and primarily being a non-oil economy.

However, it's emerging as a major oil economy in West Africa with the Dangote Refinery located in this corridor, a proposed Olokola Deep Sea Port (already pledged by Dangote), a proposed Ondo Deep Sea Port, a bitumen refinery, and perhaps a superhighway/rail connecting coastal Ondo to hinterland Èkìtì/Kogi West, therefore creating another new economic corridor: “Lagos-Ondo-Èkìtì”

Trade, Commerce, and GDP

Within Nigeria, the South-West and South-South geopolitical zones as well as the hinterland South-East geopolitical zone, will be connected by the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and Railway, linking areas with significant economic activity. Connecting five nations in Littoral West Africa, the Abidjan-Lagos Transnational Coastal Highway will pass through their major coastal cities and even their capitals. For simplicity, the entire coastal route from Abidjan to Calabar, encompassing the Abidjan-Lagos Transnational Coastal Highway and the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, will be referred to as the "Abidjan-Calabar Coastal Corridor."

Maritime and Blue Economy

The coastal highway between Abidjan and Calabar will run through all of the port cities starting from Côte d'Ivoire and ending in coastal Calabar. It may also connect the ports and the valuable seafood and fish-based economy in this corridor.

Energy, Gas, Oil, and Power

It is planned to construct wind farms along this coastal corridor in order to provide electricity for the developing coastal cities, trade, and commerce. This corridor is expected to see the emergence of crude oil refineries, bitumen refineries, and gas facilities for production, supporting industrialization. Examples include the Dangote refinery.

Housing, Tourism, and Hospitality

New cities with proper urban planning and amenities for the twenty-first century will emerge along this corridor; Eko Atlantic City in Lagos State is one example. Opportunities for the housing, tourism, and hospitality sectors, driven by private investors, include bars, restaurants, large and exotic hotels, housing estates, resort centers, recreational and sports centers, etc.

Transnational Trade - Erasing the 1884 Berlin Borders

The Abidjan-Calabar coastal corridor will emerge as an integrated economic corridor without borders, without barriers, such that a building complex may theoretically occupy two countries at their borderline. Some Free Trade Zones (FTZs) have already emerged in this corridor, e.g., Lekki FTZ (Lagos), Olokola FTZ (Ogun and Ondo), Koko FTZ (Delta) state, GDIZ (Benin Republic), etc. However, new ones are expected to emerge along this corridor.

Demography and Population

In Yorùbáland, most of the major and highly populated cities, including Akure, Ibadan, Abeokuta, Ilorin, Ogbomoso, Ifè, Ado Èkìtì, and Ondo, are located in the hinterland, far away from the coast, with the exception of Lagos.

With a population of roughly 25 million, Lagos is the only exception to this trend. It has one of the largest economies in Africa and the most viable economy of any Nigerian state or region. However, there could be a massive increase in the population of this corridor due to "population transfer" from coastal cities and hinterlands, such as Ode Omi, Ode Makun Omi, Igbogun, Ibeju Lekki, Araromi, Ilaje/Igbokoda, Koko/Ogheye, etc.

About 60% of West Africans are projected to live in this coastal corridor by 2050, with Nigeria leading the way and the South-West region being the primary home to the majority of this growth. Trade and commercial activities, as well as the viability and industrialization of this corridor, will be strongly impacted by this population boom.

In addition, the Sokoto-Badagry (Lagos) Highway/Corridor will cause a population shift due to the presence of major agribusiness and logistics companies facilitating trade and commerce between coastal West Africa and the Sahel via the Niger Republic. Illela in Sokoto is the border between Nigeria and the Niger Republic.

Depopulation of Lagos State into the Extended Coastal Economic Corridor

Lagos State is Nigeria's smallest state by landmass; nevertheless, it's Nigeria's largest state by population. Lagos has more people per square kilometer than any other place in Nigeria or even West Africa. As a result, the public infrastructure is overburdened, housing shortages are severe, sanitation and waste management issues are challenging, crime rates are rising, air and noise pollution is a problem, and traffic congestion is a problem.

But thanks to the Abidjan-Calabar Coastal Highway and Corridor, Lagos workers may live and work in Ondo, Ogun, the Benin Republic, and other places with ease and short commutes. With the railway median within the highway, freight trains can transport large cargo without having to utilise large trucks on the highway, thereby preventing accidents and reducing pressure on the roadway. The cost of living and housing may be lower for someone who lives in Ogun or Ondo State and works in Lagos.

Transportation Service

The South-West geopolitical zone, through the DAWN Commission and the newly formed South-West Development Commission (SWDC) are advised to further their investment in modern infastructure to ease the burden which is expected to rise exponentially.

This also offers a huge possibility to create economic opportunity for thousands of citizens along the network of corridors connecting Abidjan, Lagos, Calabar, and Sokoto as well as beyond it.

Side note: The Sokoto (Illela)-Lagos (Badagry) and Abidjan-Calabar Corridors are both significant economic corridors, although I believe the former is more significant.

Àṣírí Ọ̀rọ̀

Africa is neither a monolith nor a country. We analyse issues including (geo) politics, social and economics, focusing primarily on Yorùbá and West African perspectives. We appreciate your engagement and feedback on our content.

By Olúwáṣèyí

The British Empire (red) and Mongol Empire (blue) were the largest and second-largest empires in history, respectively.

A contributing factors behind this are;

Therefore, it can be said with certainty that Africa's technological backwardness in the twenty-first century began centuries ago, before the transatlantic slave trade and colonialism (which is frequently held responsible for the underdevelopment of Africa.

Civilisation - Effect of Superior Weaponry on Conquest, Colonisation and Preservation:

https://imo.asirioro.com/p/civilisation-conquest-colonization-and-weaponry

In my opinion, this is the primary reason why Africa failed to generate their "Roman/Mongol Empire" in terms of both landmass and diversity.

Check:

Beyond the Berlin Border - Restoring Africa's Nations and Civilisations:

https://imo.asirioro.com/p/africa-beyond-the-berlin-border

Also see:

How Africa's Geography it in Endless Poverty:

https://youtu.be/Y8m95sCDEf0?si=EBWko2FGTfc5OfNa

Source(s):

A History of the Yorùbá People by Professor S.Akintoye

Wikipedia

Preamble: The Year is 2038, Ọṣun State will have its four-year cycle of gubernatorial elections.

Five major candidates are running for Governor.

Journalist Interview (Name withheld/Unknown)

Would you support "Free and compulsory primary and secondary education in public schools," which States have been unable to adequately fund because of low state revenue and allocation, as well as a low education budget?

Public schools that are not self-sustaining, have poor quality because of inadequate funding, inadequate infrastructure, poor teacher quality, outdated curricula, lack of educational value, lack of talent or skills and a labour market, lack of employment opportunities, lack of continuity to tertiary education, etc.

Free Primary and secondary education has led to a quota system-based education that extracts the lowest minds, lowers graduate production and quality, and widens the quality inequalities between public and private schools.

Primary and secondary education that is both reasonably priced and of high quality, with government subsidies provided through the annual education budget.

20% of the annual budget will go towards wealth creation, research, and education under my direction.

In order to establish a sustainable education economy, the Tier System Education Economy Model is used to extract additional subsidising monies in addition to government financing. Since this strategy also links education and industries, the total amount of money spent on education will really increase by 10,000 times.

The "AFFORDABLE AND HIGH-QUALITY SECONDARY AND PRIMARY EDUCATION" Policy and its potential effects include:

• Young people's quality and productivity, which raises the Human Development Index (HDI).

• An increase in graduates' employability

• Enhanced Proficiency and Abilities

• Jobs Creation

• Influx of Students from private schools to State's public schools within the state, from other states in Nigeria and around the world.

• Improved Quality Workforce

• Increased Financial Support for the Education Sector

• Formalised Business and Industries

• Industrialization Drive

• Large Skill and Talent Pool

Preamble:

Several historical works that bolster the argument for federalism include:

Culled: The Autobiography of Obafemi Awolowo

" ….In 1951 when the controversy on the form of Nigeria’s constitution began, I had already been for more than eighteen years a convinced federalist. In the early thirties, I was a fanatical admirer of the Indian National Congress, and of three of its illustrious leaders—Mahatma Gandhi, Pandit Nehru, and Subha Bose…..

" ….One of the pronouncements of the Indian Leaders which struck the right chord in me was the one relating to the revision of provincial boundaries along linguistic lines, in the reframing of the country’s constitution.

If this was done, it would mean that apart from the Indian Parliament, each linguistic group would have its own legislature and government to deal with matters of peculiar interest to the group and within the competence of a provincial government.

" I tried to apply this proposal of the Indian leaders to Nigeria, and I became convinced that our protectorate boundaries were arbitrarily drawn. Why should there be Yorùbás and other non - Hausas in the Protectorate of Northern Nigeria? Why were Ibos and other non-Yorùbás grouped together with the Yorùbás in the Protectorate of Southern Nigeria? I knew the answers. At the Berlin Conference in 1885, the imperialist powers had paid no regard to linguistic or ethnic affinities nor to geographical features or boundaries in their final share-out of the territories of Africa. The dominant note at the conference was the need to reach a compromise among the contending colonial powers, in order to ensure peace among themselves and a prosperous tenure for each in its newly acquired colonial territory.

" The result was that people belonging to one and the same linguistic group were split between two or more different colonial powers. In the organisation of the territories assigned to them, the over-riding considerations with the British government were the maintenance of law and order, and administrative convenience. The ethnic affinity of the people under their rule did not appear to interest them.

" The present three Regions were constituted without regard to ethnological factors. The Yorùbás of Ilorin, Offa, and Kabba are included with the Hausas in the Northern Region. 

" There is no justification whatsoever for this arbitrary grouping.

Certainly these minority groups are at a considerable disadvantage when they are forced to be in the midst of other peoples who differ from them in language, culture, and historical background. But readjustment of the boundaries of the three administrative Regions will not solve all the problems.

" In that event, the Western Region would be the only area inhabited by people who all belong to the same ethnical stock, and speak the same language. In the Eastern Region there are three main national groups, namely, the Ibos, Ibibios, and Ijaws; and in the North there are five—the Hausas, Fulanis (who form the ruling class), Kanuris, Munshis, and Nupes.

" . . . There are a number of other national groups which are not recorded separately in the 1931 census.

" Under a true federal constitution each group, however small, is entitled to the same treatment as any other group, however large. Opportunity must be afforded to each to evolve its own peculiar political institution. Each group must be autonomous in regard to its internal affairs. 

" Each must have its own Regional House of Assembly. Just now, however, it would be difficult to provide enough administrative staffs to handle the affairs of well over ten Houses of Assembly throughout the country. 

" Even if such staffs were available the revenue of the country is unable to bear the expense. For the present, it is enough if it is borne in mind that this is our ultimate goal, and if we begin forthwith to take steps which would ensure the speedy attainment of this end.

" We need not be alarmed at the number of autonomous States which would thus emerge. 

" The population of Switzerland is about 4,000,000; just about one-sixth of that of Nigeria.

This country consists of four racial groups. 

These are divided into twenty-two cantons, each of which has its own Parliament and Government.

The Romansch, who form the fourth racial group, are only 44,000 in number.

They, too, have regional autonomy with a Parliament and Government of their own.

Canada, with a population of about half of that of Nigeria, has nine Provinces, each of which has its own Legislature.

According to these and other well-known and well- tried constitutional precedents, even as many as thirty to forty Regional Houses of Assembly would not be too many in the future United States of Nigeria.

“ If a country is uni-lingual and uni-national, the constitution must be unitary. If a country is uni-lingual or bi-lingual or multi-lingual and also consist of communities, which over a period of years, have developed divergent nationalities, the constitution must be federal and the constituent states must be organized on the dual basis of language and nationality. If a country is bi-lingual or multi-lingual, the constitution must be federal and the constituent states must be organized on a linguistic basis. Any experiment with a unitary Constitution in a bi-lingual or multi-national country must fail in the long run

A unitary constitution with only one central government would only result in frustration to the more pushful and more dynamic ethnic groups, whereas the division of the country into regions along ethnic lines would enable each linguistic group not only to develop its own peculiar culture and institutions but to move forward at its own pace, without being unnecessarily pushed or annoyingly slowed down by the others.

Major Three stages are to be considered:

1. State/Geo-political zone Border Readjustments

2. FEDERALISM based on above emerged Geo-political Zones/States

3. Sustainability and Viability of Emerging Zones

4. Diversity

Major Considerations:

1. 1999 Constitution and its bureaucracy

2. Viability

3. State Governments

Equal federalism among constituents, as opposed to federalism dominated by the majority ethnic group, is what such federalism should aim to achieve.

The 1957–1958 John Willink Commission Minority Report addressed this topic.

• Minorities fears of domination

• Mergers and/or split, which led to these major decisions:

  • Ilorin-Kabba Province ( Present Yorùbá Speaking parts of Kwara and Kogi States) wanted merger with Western Region ( unsuccessful)

  • Western Ijaw wanted a merger with Eastern Ijaw to form a State ( supported by Western Region and successful, leading to creation of Bayelsa State)

  • Non Yorùbá Speaking parts of Western Region ( Midwest) wanted separate Midwest Region creation ( supported by Western Region and was successful in 1963 through referendum

  • Itsekiri resisted its creation and wanted to remain part of Western Region

  • Non Hausa, Non Fulani and Non Kanuri Regions/groups wanted Middlebelt Region Creation ( Partially Successful through State creation- Military decrees by Gowon )

  • Lagos Population demanded Lagos State/Colony State and its merger with West ( successful, Created by Gen Gowon in 1967 through State creation decree)

  • Non Igbo speaking parts of Eastern Region ( Cross- Ogoja- Rivers, COR) wanted Separate COR region ( Successful through Gowon in 1967 through State creation-Military decree)

From the above, The proposal reveals that six regions are total; only one was established by referendum in 1963, and the other five were established by Gowon's military decree that established twelve states in 1967.

• Middlebelt Region creation was partially successful, 

• Midwest region creation was successful, 

• Lagos State Creation was successful

• COR region creation was successful

• Ilorin-Kabba Province merger with Western Region was unsuccessful

It's on these basis that Gen Abacha created Six Geo-political zones but without constitutional implementation into Autonomy or constitutional obligations of functions.

• Midwest region would later be called Bendel State and merged with COR region to form South-South Geo-political zone

• Some of the States formed through 12 states creation in 1967 formed North-Central Geo-political zone

• Western Region ( after Midwest region creation) and Lagos State without Ilorin-Kabba Province merger formed the South-West Geo-political zone

• Eastern Region ( Excluding COR region) formed the South-East Geo-political zone.

• Northern Region ( Excluding North-Central ) formed the North-West and North-East Geo-political zone.

In other to address State/Geo-political zone Border Readjustments:

In order to fully implement the 1958 Willink Commission Minority Report, the Ilorin-Kabba Province in the Middlebelt/North-Central Geopolitical Zone must be merged with the South-West Geopolitical Zone, as well as other non-Hausa, non-Fulani, and non-Kanuri portions of the North-West and North-East Geopolitical Zones.

The 1958 Willink Commission is fully implemented in this way, preserving the six geopolitical zones that are currently in existence OR holding new referendums in these zones to determine their current consents rather than those based on previous consents.

"Federalism is an arrangement whereby powers of government within a country are shared between a national, countrywide government and a number of regionalised (i.e., territorially localized) governments in such a way that each exists as a government separately and independently from others, operating directly on persons and property within its territorial area, with a will of its own and its own apparatus for the conduct of its affairs. Federalism is thus essentially an arrangement between government, a constitutional device by which powers within a country are shared among two tiers of government".

1. After being divided into regions, each of the six (6) geopolitical zones will be incorporated into the 1999 constitution.

• Each of the Six ( 6 ) Geo-political Regions are to have Regional Minister/Governor/Head, totaling Six

• The foundation of fiscal federalism is these six geopolitical regions, not the existing states; hence, the formula for allocating revenue is 60% to the six geopolitical regions and 40% to the federal government.

• The Federal Government may award grants to any geopolitical zone based on the needs or viability of the region.

• The Constitution grants each Geopolitical Region the authority to establish as many States or Provinces as it needs or desires. The Region determines its own expenditures, thus if it establishes ten, it will not impact the other Regions' revenue-sharing distribution.

• Each geopolitical region is granted constitutional authority to establish its own regional police force, or community policing, but this authority is tempered by federally controlled police powers. For example, federal police manage electoral voting, but regional police are prohibited from participating in any election.

• The Federal Government controls the Nigerian Armed Forces, which are left centralised as one and not regionalized, but localised, with people from different regions serving in their own areas under a single command.

In Nigeria, legislative lists provide for the division of powers - the exclusive legislative list, the concurrent legislative list and the residual legislative list.

• Section 4(1) of the Constitution provides that the legislative powers of the Federal Republic of Nigeria are vested in the National Assembly for the Federation and section 4(6) vests the legislative powers of a state in the House of Assembly of that State.

• The National Assembly is a bicameral legislative body which consists of a Senate and a House of Representatives.

• The 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria contains 68 items in the exclusive legislative on which only the Federal Government of Nigeria can legislate.

These include: accounts of the government of the federation; arms, ammunition, and explosives; aviation (including airports); awards of honours and decoration; bankruptcy and insolvency; banks, banking, bills of exchange, and promissory notes; borrowing monies inside and outside Nigeria for the purposes of the federation or any state; census; citizenship, naturalization, and aliens; commercial and industrial monopolies; construction and maintenance of federal trunk roads; control of capital issues; copyrights; creation of states; currency, coinage, and legal tender; customs and excise duties; defence; diplomatic, consular, and trade representation; drugs and poisons; election to offices of president and vice-president, governor, or deputy governor; evidence; exchange control; export duties; external affairs; extradition; immigration and emigration; implementation of treaties; insurance; incorporation, regulation, and winding up of corporate bodies other than those established by a law enacted by the state Houses of Assembly; labour; maritime shipping and navigation; meteorology; military (army, navy, and air force); mines and minerals; national parks; nuclear energy; passports and visas; patents; trademarks, trade, or business names; pensions and gratuities payable out of the public funds of the federation; police and other government security services established by law; posts, telegraphs and telephones; powers of the federal National Assembly and the privileges and immunities of its members; prisons; public debts; public holidays; public service of the federation; quarantine; railways; regulation of political parties; service and execution in civil and criminal processes, judgments, decrees, and other decisions of any court of law inside or outside Nigeria, except for laws made by the state; stamp duties; taxation of incomes; profits and capital gains, as provided by the Constitution; trade and commerce; traffic on federal trunk roads; water from sources declared by the National Assembly to affect more than one state; weights and measures; wireless, broadcasting, and television other than those owned by states; any matter with respect to which the National Assembly has power to make laws under this Constitution; and any "matter incidental or supplementary to any matter mentioned elsewhere in this list.

• Each Geo-political Region should have these Constitutional powers:

1. Mines and Minerals

2. Trade and Commerce

3. Patents, trademarks, trade, or business names; pensions and gratuities payable out of the public funds of the federation.

4. commercial and industrial monopolies; construction and maintenance of federal trunk roads; control of capital issues; copyrights; creation of states;

5. railways; regulation of political parties; service and execution in civil and criminal processes, judgments, decrees, and other decisions of any court of law inside or outside Nigeria

6. Power Generation

7. Agriculture

8. Education

9. VAT and Cooperate Income Tax etc

10. Geopolitical regions will serve as the basis for courts and the Supreme Court.

Above is just a recommendation for the scope of this article. It should be based general consensus between the constituents.

Each Geopolitical Region is the only one that collects all taxes and revenue, not FIRS, and 40% is sent to the federal government OR FIRS collects all taxes and income but the revenue sharing formula/allocation is based on "get as your earn" and not based on these:

% Equality - 10%

% Population - 5%

% IGR effort - 30%

% Education - 30%

% Health - 10%

% Water - 10%

% Landmass - 5%

But revised to showcase fiscal Federalism and 

• Federal Government allocation changes to 40% from 52.68 it collects and

• State and Local Governments allocation changes to 60% from 47.32.

Note: Six (6) geopolitical regions serve as the basis for the allocation of State and Local Governments; hence, the Federal Government does not have any role in the transfer of funds to the States or Provinces.

For example, the South-West Geopolitical Region receives its allotment and distributes it to its provinces, or the ten States, or any other number it chooses, since it is empowered by the Constitution to establish such.

The number of states or provinces that any one geopolitical region decides to have has no bearing on other geopolitical regions.

3. Sustainability and Viability of Emerging Zones

Any geopolitical region in need of funding can apply for grants from the federal government; a national fund should be established with a 40% contribution from the federal government, to which a particular percentage of the monies allocated go. Grants should be awarded to any geopolitical region that requests them, and the requirements should be followed.

It should be mentioned that questions about diversity and minorities should be raised because Nigeria will have six (6) geopolitical regions, as the article illustrates!

Based on diversity, these six (6) geopolitical regions are separated into two groups:

1. Monocultural/ Ethnic Homogenous Regions: Three ( 3 ) of the Six ( 6 ) Geo-political Regions are monocultural/ethnic Homogenous, they are:

• South-West ( Yorùbá)

• North-West ( Hausa, Fulani)

• South-East ( Igbo )

2. Multicultural/ Ethnic Heterogeneous Regions:

   Three ( 3 ) of the Six ( 6 ) Geo-political Regions are multicultural/ethnic Heterogenous, they are:

• South - South

• Middlebelt

• North - East

Each of the Geo-political Region has constitutional power to create its States/Provinces, therefore;

• Each of the three ( 3 ) Monocultural/ Ethnic Homogenous Geo-political Regions could have States or Provinces based on their Subgroups/dialects or based on conveniences e.g South-West could have Ijebu, Òyó, Èkìtì, Akoko, Ijesa, Ifè, Ìgbómìnà, Yewa, Ondo, Awori, Remo, Ilaje, Ikale, Ibadan, Onko etc States/ Provinces based on dialects or conveniences.

Same for Others.

• Each of the three ( 3 ) multicultural/ Ethnic Heterogenous Geo-political Regions could have States/Provinces based on their Ethnic Groups or based on their conveniences e.g South - South Geo-political Region could have Urhobo, Edo, Ijaw, Ogoni, Ikwere, Ibibio, Annang, Efik Etc States/ Provinces based on Ethnic groups or conveniences

• Middlebelt Geo-political Region could have States/Provinces based on their Ethnic Groups or Conveniences e.g Tiv, Idoma, Atyab, Jukun, Igala, Nupe, Ìbàrìbá, Mamuye, Ebira etc States/Provinces based on Ethnic groups or based on Conveniences

• Same for North-East Geo-political Region.

Each of these States/Provinces should have Governors or Provincial Heads like State Governors across NIGERIA today with constitutional power depending on Geo-political regions and its constitution/laws.

IMPLICATIONS:

• Ethnic Rivalry and Communal Clashes Curtailed:

Either Banditry in North-West and North- Central or Militias attacks on Middlebelt Communities or any other, this will curtail them.

• It promotes Equity and Justice in Resource sharing

• It stabilizes Nigeria

• It fosters progress and development since stability is achieved

• Each constituent can develop at their pace and direct how they want to drive their socioeconomic and sociopolitical affairs- Self Determination

• NIGERIA Remains United and One

• More resources are geared towards growth and development rather than Conflicts and de-stabilization

• Unity in Diversity achieved and harnessed

• Fosters decolonization of institutions e.g regional/state/provincial languages can be language of education, science and technology with English as National Language.

• Federation of NIGERIA or United States of NIGERIA achieved

• Cost of governance reduced due to six Geo-political Regions structure yet more efficient

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• 1958 Willink Commission Minority Report reconsidered

• State/Geo-political zone Borders Readjustments are made based on it or fresh referenda done

• FEDERALISM based on existing Six ( 6 ) Geo-political zones but with already border readjustments

• Fiscal Federalism based on these Six Geo-political Regions

• Constitutional Powers for the Geo-political Regions

• Each Geo-political Regions will have their States/ Provinces with State Governors/Provincial Governors

• Minority and diversity questions answered and solution proffered

• Equal Federalism implemented

• Peace, Stability and Growth of Nigeria

• Grassroot Governance enhanced

• NIGERIA Remains United, Beauty in Diversity and One.

The parameters of a nation’s success or failure exist across many forms. But I simply desire to determine if looking at a flat map on a table and nothing else, a pattern could be observed. I was quite shocked.

The observations I made, though not new, were quite shocking still.

We believe in diversity in all its limitations. Those who taught us these principles continue to ensure it remains only an ideal on their lands. But we have come to take this gospel as a divine mission to accomplish.

The image above is of those who are the root of our current problems. Despite creating such chaos across Africa, they ensure still today to not dare replicate such measures on their end. Such an attempt at a limited version of this diversity has been a source of countless strife still ongoing today.

There are a million and one things to say, but I would let the maps below speak for themselves.

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Will the nation within the many borders below survive its inherent diversity and its consequences?

Here in lie the sit of the Berlin Conference, the very heart of the evils we suffer. Held in 1884/5, decision were made that affect many souls today. But here in lie the reality they carve upon us and the reality they live today.

How expensive peace, tranquility and success will be in this state, if created today, is unimaginable and no one would dare suggest this.

"Multiculturalism leads to parallel societies and therefore remains a ‘life lie,’ ” or a sham, she said, before adding that Germany may be reaching its limits in terms of accepting more refugees. "The challenge is immense" she said. "We want and we will reduce the number of refugees noticeably."

In the far east, though limited but these groups ensured to be free of each other’s direct influences for the destiny they enjoy today to be possible.

We find it difficult to understand the scale of the size of Nigeria and magnitude of the purpose we’ve chosen to pursue. We continue to see how the vast majority of nations seem more cohesive and their neighbourhood far more dynamic than ours. If we were in the heart of Asia, will the nation within the border below survive its inherent diversity and its consequences?

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We know today what the reality of the nations below is and how much competition exists in this neighbourhood. Now imagine imposing the border depicted below, with the history of blood and iron here. Will such a nation find its purpose?

In the heart of the Arab world, with the current distrust and competition, would this have still allowed for their success and riches? Will it not simply become an expression of the oil and diversity curse?

I have written one times too many about the addiction we have to Nigeria due to its size and population. What is possible is so enticing, we forget why nations we desire to replicate may have succeeded. The USA with about twice out population, 332 million. Imagine how limited we are in sheer landmass, climate and resource diversity. USA may have been able to forestall our fate simple due to the breadth of its lands.

In America, through migration and settler colonialism, the result is the near destruction of the indigenous people in the North of the continent - America and Canada, and the re-population (still ongoing through immigration) of those areas which also serve to dilute the indigenous voices. In the continent's south, the effects of that history are still evident today.

We will end with this, going back to such a historic place. Would anyone dare suggest this or any other reality in this article?

All the borders above make direct sense to us in why they cannot exist, but when we come back home, we find limitless excuses to justify the criminality we sustain.

We have a date with destiny. If we do not become pragmatic and find the lowest common denominator which can guarantee our peace and individual EthnoLinguistic success, the price we will pay will simply keep increasing.

I will leave you with the words of a friend on what would happen if many of the nations above were created across the overlay borders, won maa fe pa bastard si ra won lara.

We must not wish upon ourselves this fate nor should we, through our dogmatic belief in realising the colonialist dream, enforce it upon ourselves.

It’s okay to be different.

It’s okay to be you.

It’s okay to feel like, indifferent and hate towards others.

It’s okay to be as human as every other group across the world.

It’s perfectly reasonable to want to be independent of others on lands that are yours.

As an African, it’s okay to be just another human being.

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Àṣírí Ọ̀rọ̀

Africa is neither a monolith nor a country. We analyse issues including (geo) politics, social and economics, focusing primarily on Yorùbá and West African perspectives. We appreciate your engagement and feedback on our content.

By Olúwáṣèyí

Nigeria, with the forces of ECOWAS and the support of the west, is determined to war with Niger Republic to restore democracy. It sounds like a summary of a Hollywood blockbuster, but this is our reality today.

Niger Republic is a Hausa majority country with a largest population of Tuareg, about 2.8 million (11%), making up of the state. The decision to war with them has had an interesting effect on the Nigerian polity. The South has been the primary driver of these sentiments in bringing democracy back to the Niger republic, while the north has vehemently opposed this desire.

The opposition of the North to this war is primarily driven by ethnic sentiments. As they share deep familiar relations with Hausa, which makes up over 53% of Niger republic citizens, likewise the Kanuri as well. These familiar ties are a courtesy of the Berlin Conference and the inability of Africa to realign its borders into a more meaningful state, all in the hopes of offsetting a scenario like the current was by keeping such trans-border groups hostage.

The principal trans-national groups in Nigeria are Yoruba, Kanuri, Hausa, Fulani, and Bariba. Therefore, the opinions of those who don’t share this reality should not be taken serious. Many desire wars between Africa’s states to cement statehood and nationalism, but for us who exist across multiple borders, it’s a tragedy which will see us sacrifice our souls for cementing the colonial border. A reality we must continue to reject at all costs.

Can Nigeria be victorious?

Nigeria’s claim to victory is having a bigger military and a larger population to draft from in case of a need. But having a bigger military doesn’t assure victory, as history is replete with instances of the underdog becoming victorious. It comes down to dogma & morale.

• Are Nigeria’s soldiers ready to fight tooth and nail for democracy in Niger?

• Are Niger’s soldiers ready to fight tooth and nail against a foreign aggressor?

• Between these two states, whose male population can be co-opted into service on demand?

• Do we have the numbers to take, occupy, fund, secure and govern the territory after we liberate it?

• Will the rest of the Sahel simply look on as we waltz into Niger?

Global Geopolitical Forces

Global geopolitical forces have also come into play from the west to Wagner. Although the depth of involvement of these forces is not yet clear, recent Russia outreach including through Wagner point to a further investment in the region.

The west has always had deep roots here, though they are being pushed back. But the inability to commit beyond rhetoric has always armed their perceived interest in the region.

A multipolar world with its consequences is also a play here. Both sides of the divide seem invested in seeking out a battlefield far enough from their territories. It seems inevitable they will clash. Only the question is when and where. The Sahel and West Africa are currently looking as the next spark in their contention, a further escalation from Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Sudan.

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African nations will be faced with a difficult decision and sadly, we are not allowed the option of not choosing or staying neutral. Though, whatever decision we make will result in grave consequences for us. The coming months and years will force us to face the dreaded African question of the legitimacy of its colonial borders and states. This schism, which has been left unaddressed since the colonial exit from Africa, will be exploited by all sides. Frankly, it is too late for Africa to fix this schism.

The different Ethnic Nations enclosed in colonial African contraptions will be supported to determine their fate. Age-old animosity, exploitation and denial of sovereignty will come to the fore. At the end of this decade, Africa will be a very different continent with borders reflecting the constituent Ethnic Nations.

Consequences

There is a broader Sahel angle being ignored besides the litany of jihadists and terrorist waiting to pounce once this war starts. Not to talk of the broader network of Tuareg, Fulani and Hausa fighters that will come in from across the region.

A Tuareg militia has been a mainstay in the security crisis across the Sudan. Along with the Fulani militia, they form a force that continues to corporate with other groups to distablise the region.

In the event of a war with Niger, it is expected for them along with other groups to contribute to the resulting instability with the war will institute.

Nigeria will have to be prepared to either intern or put 20% of our population under surveillance as they might be 5th columnists. As these state including are fictional, the same forces at play leading to the resulting Ukraine-Donbass divide based on ethnicity will probably result, although because of different reason including the aggression of Nigeria towards Niger.

The north of Nigeria despises being out of power. We should expect a future where election are more divisive across ethnic lines as recent events have vindicated their long held position.

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People asked where will Niger find weapons. Smuggling is still a thing which Africa, with its porous borders, cannot stop. Also, Wagner has thrown their hat in the ring to support Niger along with Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and others. These alliances will pit the Sahel against the coastal West Africa, a face off we have not seen since pre colonial Africa. Wagner will, of course, come with the weapons and Russian support.

MALI HAS JUST DEFINITIVELY PUT AN END TO ITS DEPENDENCE ON FRANCE BY CANCELING THE 11 COLONIAL AGREEMENTS IMPOSED ON AFRICAN COUNTRIES SINCE 1960.

The above further complicates matters, as the coming war cannot be simply reduced to democracy vs authoritarianism. A force of decolonisation is at play and Nigeria will do well to navigate the waters of the francophone’s further decolonisation.

Recent events have seen Niger Republic close its airspace to Nigeria. If other Sahel states follow, what will be our response? Invade them or what? f they decide the extend the air blockade to the rest of the coastal states, what can we do?

It is the height of tomfoolery, as we’ve seen thinking, because a nation is landlocked, it has no geopolitical or economic relevance it can use to war with us. The blockade is a tool of war for which we depend on the vast ait territory of the hinterland to access much of the world. If it’s closed to us, what can we do?

It’s nice to desire to throw your weights around as a giant, but it depends not on how you feel but the depth of your capacity and accomplishments which Nigeria acutely lack.

Once upon a time in February last year we were against war and the invasion of a neighbour. We were adamant for Russia to remain diplomatic regardless of the consequences on itself. But once we found an easy prey in our eye, we discovered a litany of excuses for war. We found a good war in the name of democracy. It is fine to be hypocritical, but it takes more than just feeling strong to win a war.

Lastly, we will be burdened with funding and securing Niger’s democracy for decades to come if we succeed in our invasion. We’ve seen this play out times without number in other areas of the world with the most recent example being Afganistan.

It is quite easy to start a war, but seeking its end will be a long, treacherous road.

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Àṣírí Ọ̀rọ̀

Africa is neither a monolith nor a country. We analyse issues including (geo) politics, social and economics, focusing primarily on Yorùbá and West African perspectives. We appreciate your engagement and feedback on our content.

By Olúwáṣèyí

A story tends to be told with nostalgia and romanticism, but the journey of how the events are accomplished is one of patience, turmoil and compromise.

How did we get here today where Sinn Fein, an Irish nationalist party, now is a majority in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland parliaments?

The simple version is Brexit, as you cannot put extensive restrictions between the Republic of Ireland & Northern Ireland (NI) similar to the border drawn by European powers between the Yorùbá of Benin Republic and Nigeria which was blockaded for over a year by the last Nigerian administration.

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The Tribalism we tend to comprehend

We are going to see a few maps and draw some conclusion. You're free to disagree and draw yours. We'll try to keep the election result map on the left for reference.

Some people were born in NI and felt it belongs to all, others were born abroad and felt the need to hold on tightly to their birthright. Guess experiencing the diaspora makes you a tad bit more tribalistic ni yen.

The map below shows the degree of fluency in reading and writing Irish in Northern Ireland. Quite funny that only 75k people can read, write and understand Irish fluently in the whole of Northern Ireland.

A map protestants vs catholics. Blue is protestant, red is catholic. Note British are largely protestants and Republic of Ireland largely catholics.

A map of national identity they identify with. Green is Irish and Blue is British. By now you'll notice a pattern. If not 🤨?

Let’s take a look at the map of the National Identity by Ethnicity. Different ethnic groups in all areas are asked to choose between the three - British, Ireland and NI. Note: diaspora groups from across the world also had a choice. After all, the land belongs to all of us now 😅.

Anyway, the maps were quite fun. It all can be found on Wikipedia - Demography of Northern Ireland.

As we saw above, Northern Ireland has a sizeable British and British aligned (through various means) occupant. For a long time, over a century, the swing voters voted majorly for the union party, a force of status quo that wishes to keep Northern Ireland in the union without rocking the UK boat.

Because of Brexit though, they have largely switched their supported to the Sinn Fein party, which is the nationalist party that wishes to complete the dream of a fully independent Irish homeland of which Northern Ireland is currently the missing piece. A dream I find appealing as a Yoruba.

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The forgotten truth

Anyway, when the going we're good, they voted for a continues existence in the UK where they enjoyed much benefits to the dismay of their nationalist brothers for decades until a shift happened in between the early 2000s up and the current Brexit conundrum.

Well, it appears everybody nah hypocrite without shame as long as the benefits justify’s it. Moving on, people who awoke to be more Irish inclined now choose to vote for an Irish union party, an expression of democracy and Irish nationalism but apparently not tribalism (seems the rules in Europe are quite different from that of Africa).

Observations from the maps

The occupant of the western section of NI can be said to identify and align more towards being Irish, while those of the east identify and align more towards being British. This division in identity is expressed in the maps and polls above. It is important not to forget that many areas in past elections voted overwhelmingly for the unionists.

The very same forces and division that were exploited in this election are no different from that which played out in recent electoral pattern in Yorùbá land (South West Nigeria) and across other regions in Nigeria.

Such an electoral map will be shouted down on the alter of tribalism in Nigeria, but in saner clime we understand it as a progression towards a united Ireland for all Irish people. If you listen to the unionist arguments, it'll remind you a lot of the fear mongering by those who prefer the status quo.

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Despite over a century of engineered unionism, realities are changing and the dream of a Unified Sovereign Ireland is closer to completion. We can learn lessons from this in our pursuit of a Unified Sovereign Yorùbáland away from other colonial complexities.

Sinn Fein were once called tribalists, backward, illiberal, terrorist against the current global citizenship (whatever that means), they were accused of trying to instigate a tribal conflict once again in Europe, of bringing back the barbarism of ethnic conclaves, of being against diversity and multiculturalism, and many other evils. They walked their path until this moment as they understood the Irish experience and how it's been fault with devastation as they are at the mercy of the British.

Going back to the main question, where is the tribalism in this, the Irish & Irish inclined people voted for a Northern Ireland for Irish while the British & British aligned people voted for a party that is focused on keeping the British aligned hegemony in place.

In Nigerian English, those who voted for Sinn Fein are tribalists and bigots while those who voted for UDP are the true lovers of a "One United Kingdom created by god", the good guys who sees everyone as human (😉 British 🤫) first.

Anyway, the Irish people could care less what we think, as it is their fate to be decided and they about have had enough of the emotional manipulations and machinations of the British.

In about a thousand years, we will likely understand as they did the importance of complete sovereignty and freedom of one’s own lands, a truly Sovereign Independent Homeland for one’s own ethnicity. That's if we choose not to take their vast experience to heart, learn from their mistake and skip a whole lot of pain, famine, sorrow and death, only to end up where we keep running from.

As an African, it’s okay to be just another human being.

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Àṣírí Ọ̀rọ̀

Africa is neither a monolith nor a country. We analyse issues including (geo) politics, social and economics, focusing primarily on Yorùbá and West African perspectives. We appreciate your engagement and feedback on our content.

By Olúwáṣèyí

Much has been said about liberalism, its tenets and its perceived divinity. But not much appreciation has been put on its history and to be circumspect about the cult that evangelises its holiness above all else. One cannot be faulted to believe it is a new focal religion as once again “the world” has decided old faiths are unnecessary in the modern world.

Those who brought us the most famous denomination of liberalism, are also those who gave us 5 centuries of industrial dehumanisation and colonisation. It is with these two frames - dehumanisation and colonisation - that we will consider what may have been afoot once upon a time.

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Liberalism can be said to be primarily concerned with an individual, his rights, and his liberties. These are wonderful tenets which most societies even those in history attempts to realise to the degree their reality & circumstance can allow. By the way, it’s quite comical for these tenets to be sought by those who dehumanised the world for so long. But as with all things life is not without its ironies.

Let us consider the dehumanisation that has occurred over the past centuries leading to today. Individuals and groups we reduced to subhuman beasts of burden to usher in the modern world where these principles are said to be unwelcomed, though at its fringes away from our perceived reality they thrive.

Culture can be said to be the way of life of a people over generations to the point where it lasts long enough to become second nature. Many cultures we choose and are aware of, many are as formless and illusive as the air but we can always percieve their effects. Therefore, it can be said that 5+ centuries of dehumanising the human in the rest of humanity outside Europe could have created a culture to be formed of deconstructing the human and the group he belongs to.

Limited as compared to the past, but the dehumanising frame of western liberalism tries with its might to ensure a human standalone in the forest of humanity. Everything that are supposed to form the core of such a being - language, spirituality, culture, civilisation, etc., are all to be stripped away for a uniform logical unit to the formed. We become units of production and function easily replaceable by another, our humanity nowhere to be found.

The success of colonisation cannot be separated from the centuries dehumanisation that preceeds it. The human was stripped systematically and industrially from us and later morphed into a civilising mission to save the us savages from themselves. This can be seen in how tribe is now the primary frame of which we view what should be ethnic. Internalised hate and self defeat are things we have a long way to go from resolving.

It is important to note that despite us being savages without agency, this thought had zero impact on us being forced to sign away our right, ownerships and sovereignty through treaties.

Then came the end of colonialism where the empire was kicked out across that world. As it was during the end of the slave trade, about the same time as the colonies began declaring themselves sovereign from the empires, it became unfashionable to keep empires and rather a committee of nations were to be born. The eventual leaders of these committees remains representative from the same set of groups that had sustained and hegemony from centries before it. Essentially, old ideas in now clothing.

This end was not welcome by all, to believe otherwise is an error. Today we can still see the vestiges of the pain of that loss but the focus here is the possible ramification of the hibernation of the principles held during the period of empires that are suddenly percieved as being no more attractive in the wake of this change. These ideas, principles and thoughts did not simply vanish into the air. They found new home and application such that even today many unaware of their influence on the modern world.

Back to Western Liberalism and all the denominations it birthed, as the supposed solution to all ills of a society, it seems a part of why these thoughts were formed can be traced to the need to explain away and justify the need for the continued existence of the colonies. Essential better narrative to reimagine the past, not to attempt a fundermental revolution.

From America to Canada, Australia to New Zealand, and the 54 “nations” of Africa, the need to justify the existence of these countries and influence became important after the empires crumbled. Then came the slogan “Unity/Beauty in Diversity”.

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Lifting the facade of “Beauty in Diversity”

“Beauty in Diversity” is the source of many chaos and difficulties in today’s world. As stated previously, many ideas of the past centuries found a home under new garb. This found its place in justifying the creations of the empire which see different antagonist civilisations garbled up into "nations-states” that made zero sense.

Borders drawn arbitrarily to divide civilisations into chunks and ensure they hold no capacity for majority anywhere. This evil and many more is today being justified under “Beauty in Diversity”. The very same “Beauty in Diversity” nonexistent in Europe’s ethnolinguistic borders.

Europe, a continent of about 750 million people, occupies 1/5 of Africa’s landmass with 50 sovereign ethnic majority nations. With a fraction of Africa’s size and a fraction of the diversity, Europe, the leader in propagating the ideal of “Beauty in DIversity”, has about the same number of states as Africa, but its state are far more stable and they largely follow the ethnolinguistic model to form a series of ethnic majority nations.

Observing the logical conclusion of the thought can be seen in unbridled globalisation and migration where anyone anywhere must be allowed into your society. Again, with others, these principles can well be viewed differently in you go back in time a century or two. Attempts at colonialism through manipulation of an individuals emotion and reality. As it can well lead to exclusive white minority rule across the global south, but it seems to have failed.

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Never get high on your own supply

To sell “Beauty in Diversity” to the world, you first had to sell it to yourself and be convincing enough for others to jump on the sham. All these in aim to appear as being selfless, but it backfired. It backfired because in their attempt to create a perceived reality at home, rather it was institutionalised, and became an unquestonable devine doctrine to be evangelised, as it was once done, to the world.

All these cannot be separated from the consequence of their past action, and attempts to amend/restitute that history and the perceptions that surrounds them. As clarified above, many ideas became unfashionable suddenly giving individuals and intellectuals who has before then internalised them little to no time to adjust to the new reality.

Therefore, for many of them, not much changed except the application of the classic english courtesy to repackage their person, ideas and thoughts. With this, many same ideology, thoughts and philosophy that power the age of darkness preceeding it, which we thought we left behind, are very much alive today.

Consequences of Multiculturalism & Unbridled Liberalism

Looking back now at European history, we can see even today still the benefits of empire living past its prime. But as with all things, it also has consequences. The resultant efect of western libralism may well be just as the current realities are dipicting.

Multiculturalism has not have a very good history around the world especially in Europe. In Merkel’s own words:

"Multiculturalism leads to parallel societies and therefore remains a ‘life lie,’ ” or a sham, she said, before adding that Germany may be reaching its limits in terms of accepting more refugees. "The challenge is immense" she said. "We want and we will reduce the number of refugees noticeably."

Also, Europes history is litered with lessons that makes is clear why its nation-states ensure follow the ethnolinguistic model, and why configurations such as Switzerland are an exception. The existence of Luxembourge, which many today will argue against if its on the African continent, is further evidence of something many don’t quite appreciate, the limits of liberalism.

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With its history along with considerations of Merkel’s words, the direction where Europe is heading is quite clear. Germany, Sweden, England, France, and others are currently suffering the consequences of multiculturalism and unbridled liberalism. They were unable to implement the principle of assimilation which has led to the creation of parralllel societies within their nations.

These parrallel societies are from cultures and civilisations that are fundamentally antagonist to theirs. Of course this is a direct implication of their history of colonisation and inteferance in regions across the world while tryng to propagate their liberal democratic civilisation.

The rise in right wing ultra nationalist are currently underway in their societies. Sweden which profess itself as the most liberal nation on earth saw the right wing block parties winning more seats in parliament than the left. Migration as well as other factors contributes to this rise. Its an uncomfortable reality but these factors exists, will be utilised by those seeking power and relevance, and it will do us all a lot of good to acknowledge them.

Back home the consequence of Multiculturalism and diversity has never been lost on us but we’re stuck in its hell. Recently, the limitations of both became aparent in Nigeria’s elections and many self proclaimed liberals are still unable to understand the why. They seem stuck in a loop unable to break and accept that humans are ultimately humans.

For Europe, colonising the world and drawing them closer to your reality by way of homogenisation and standardisation of language and all aspect of reality has consequences. As you continue to enjoy the benefits of our sweat and labour, so too will you stomach it's consequences. Its going to be a rough road ahead, prepare yourself.

For my brothers, in as much as you like me desire to be liberal, we can only do so to the degree the world and our place in it affords us. We have suffered its evils for so long. If we’re unable to learn because we believe accepting this reality somehow makes us less human, take solace in Europe’s appointment with history. Quite soon, the air waves will be filled with “illebral” principles that have been denonced for the past decades and the world will once again find them acceptable. As with all instances before now, all seems to be okay when they start doing it.

Any ideology is only as useful as the utility it has for a people, culture and society in achieving civilisational success and prosperity. As with all tools, develop the capacity to recognise what its most useful for and to change if & when a better tool is needed. There is no tool, idea or principle that is absolutely eternally good. Learn to adjust as needed in measure across the spectrum based on the need required to navigate the present.

The road to hell is said to be paved with good intetions. Learn to be discerning and not jump on nice sounding slogans and ideologies.

It’s okay to be different.

It’s okay to be you.

It’s okay to feel like, indifferent and hate towards others.

It’s okay to be as human as every other group across the world.

It’s perfectly reasonable to want to be independent of others on lands that are yours.

As an African, it’s okay to be just another human being.

Be sure to share, like, comment and subscribe across all platforms.

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Through a series of errors and tragedies in history, our society has largely stagnated from the period of the industrial revolution in the latter half of the 1700s.

The first industrial revolution (1IR) saw the advent of mechanised efficiency in the process of manufacturing, though with limited adoption due to its novelty.

The second industrial revolution (2IR) saw a speedy adoption of technological innovations and discovery across various fields, industries and manufacturing. The major contribution to the increasing adoption of industrialisation at the time is the embrace of scientific principle and methods, the standardisation of processes, products and system which informs this expansion, and the further spread in the adoption of electricity.

The third industrial revolution (3IR) occurred not too long ago and is still fresh in the minds of many. The invention of the semiconductor led to a shift towards digital systems in the late 1900s. It led to the invention and adoption on a global scale of technologies like the web/internet, computers, mobile phones and the mail. All these and more have fundamentally shifted the capacity and reality of humanity in ways no time in history can compare.

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As with other industrial revolutions before it, the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) is shares a lot with those preceding it, but differs greatly as there is no fundamental separation between it and the 3IR. The 4IR is more characterised by the monumental expansion of the 3IR and how it has impacted virtually every aspect of our reality.

The exponential rise in computation power, the further digitisation of all technology and interconnectivity achieved by connecting them to the internet, the internet of things (IoT). We’ve seen the creation of a cyberspace where humanity spends a large portion of the day through on device or the other.

Also, the evolution of computing over the past 2 decades has contributed to the birth of more powerful Artificial Intelligence (AI) which has cumulated in the creation of tools likes ChatGPT and Midjourney which grant the average human the capacity to tap into the power of AI at a fraction of the cost and technology required to create them.

That was quite the long exposition but one required nonetheless to make clear to you as it is to me the tragedy of our reality today as eternal consumers of these technologies.

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The Maxim Gun

A product of the 1IR is the maxim gun, the first fully automatic machine gun, invented in 1884 and first demonstrated in October of the same year. Coincidentally, the Berlin Conference held a month later in November. It went on not only to contribute to the conquest and empire's desires of the British and Europe.

One of the first recorded uses of the Maxim gun by British Forces was in the 1887 Yoni Expedition. Before this time, the realisation of the Berlin Conference dream has largely stagnated because of the parity of warfare technology at the time and the high inefficiency of flintlock rifles in use.

This discovery was able to change all this and ensure the victory and eventual annexation, subjugations, and incorporation of our kingdoms and nations into the colonial project. Territories, nations and empires who had been able to ward off the European invasions before that time.

ChatGPT

ChatGPT has made it possible for all of humanity to have their own personal assistant in a box in way Siri, Ok Google or Cassandra cannot match. With each passing day the technology breaks new ground and challenges our ideas of the limitations of technology. But as with experiences, this AI as well has the unconscious bias of not only its creators baked in but also whatever bias is contained in the 45 gigabytes of data the latest iteration, GPT-4, is trained on.

As ChatGPT is a blackbox, we have no idea what its internal workings are or its persuasions. But we consume its choices as we do with any other human, but maybe with a bit more trust than should be due.

As with the maxim gun, recent AI innovations as this have fundamental implications which on our reality. We already see the rudimentary application of AI in autonomous system in warfare in similar speed as we see in other fields like medicine. It has again granted a vast superiority between us and others on this planet once again.

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Coloniality and Stagnation

From the start of the 1IR till now, we have largely been left behind. We cannot, on a national level, be said to be playing catch up as we are yet to display the capacity or mastery of the innovations that have informed our reality and experience through the past few centuries.

The basics of 1IR, which is essential to industrialise a process, is one we struggle with. Also, the 2IR process of standardisations, scale expansion and electrification, 3IR process of digitisation, and the accessibility and automations that have come to be paramount to today’s world is clearly currently beyond our reach.

For a long time, I have considered the advent of the 1IR and the creations of the maxim gun to have led to the frustration of our development. Although truly time had moved onwards and many more, to which many will ask for us to move on and not wallow in the past.

The little that was accomplished in the 1960/70 was pilfered away by a series of coups by inexperienced military generals. Contributing to this are the political inconsistencies that characterised the colonials states at the time epitomised by their desires for unity to keep the contraptions alive at all cost. Costs which have become apparent to be the freedom, prosperity and modernisation of the people.

But it must still be stated as it is clear as daylight that the realities instituted from 1884 on us continues to plague us while the current developments seems although at first glance to make our situations better in its own measure, but under closer inspection not only frustrates the resolutions of this aged illegitimacy/error but also complicates it.

It is important to note that arising from the 1IR; the discoveries made are not limited to technologies and its adoption alone, as this drown out the others, but of ideologies as well and how those with primacy in this technology have been able to incorporate it within the products, or these days algorithms, they produce for our consumption.

To escape the current dilemma we have found ourselves, we need to internalise the lesson of structuring ourselves in such a way to form agile and adaptive cohesive units away from the current chimera states we have chosen to hold together by force. The thought of collective advancement needs to be jettisoned and individual groups able to need to seek modernisation and prosperity for their people first, before going on an adventure of benevolence.

Sustaining the current reality is unreasonable for Africa. With the level of its diversity and landmass, no other continent can relate to its circumstance and reality. Africa requires not only more states but true nations built on the ethnolinguistic model with ethnic majority presence in each nation. Only through this can the dream of stability, prosperity a degree of unified reality be achieved.

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Àṣírí Ọ̀rọ̀

Africa is neither a monolith nor a country. We analyse issues including (geo) politics, social and economics, focusing primarily on Yorùbá and West African perspectives. We appreciate your engagement and feedback on our content.

By Olúwáṣèyí

Then, there's the external dimensions and players who, in their support, exploit different sides - be it ethnic or religious groups - for their geopolitical, economic, religious, racial, ethnic, national and even ideological interests.

Inability to manage the “Beauty in Diversity” of a state leads to sustained internal instability, which leaves a state weak and prone to civil wars, inter-ethnic conflicts, destabilization and interventions by external power play.

None of these requires any supernatural talent to divine. All it needs is a healthy appreciation and respect for history - both ancient and contemporary, and reality - as it is not as we desire it to be.

Sudan

The most recent violence broke out on 15 April between the leader of the army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who seized control of the government from al-Bashir in 2019, and the warlord Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, also called Hemedti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), also known by over the planned integration of the RSF, a paramilitary created by al-Bashir, into the regular army and their discontent with power-sharing modalities.

According to SBM Intelligence, because of the geopolitical reality, both military leaders have external supporters, Egypt backs Burhan, while the Saudis back Hemedti. There is also the suspicion that Russia, through PMC Wagner and the United States, have chosen sides. With about 100,000 strong, the RSF is unusually large for a paramilitary force, and it is well-equipped with American weapons, likely to have been supplied by the Saudis. It also got rich through funding from the European Union (EU). After the Land Cruiser War, millions of euros were paid to the Janjaweed by the EU to stop illegal migrants from reaching the Mediterranean, despite the group’s well-documented human rights abuses and genocide, even though for this reason, Al-Bashir has been in custody of ICC.

It's just a matter of time before Sudan metamorphosed from the battle-ridden country to a full-fledged nationwide civil war where many of the armed groups and disgruntled communal/ethnic militias, not under the control of the two key figures, to pick sides or fill the vacuums.

Most of the refugees from Sudan entering South Sudan won't stay there due to conflicts in South Sudan as well. Kenya, Chad, Ethiopia and Nigeria will probably be their final destinations. The distance from Al Junaynah border city in Sudan to North-East Nigeria, Maiduguri, is 200 km shorter than that of Lagos in the SouthWest to Maiduguri in the North-East within the same Nigeria geographic space.

The Sudanese crisis is making life in the already hard Sahel even harder. Chad, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Kenya are all at risk of being drawn into the conflict. Also, with the influx of displaced Sudanese into Nigeria - 5 million Felata (Fulani) people can trace their ancestry to Nigeria, the country is expected to experience demographic changes, rise in extreme religious ideas, and an increase in the proliferation of light and small arms across the Sahel and West Africa.

Similarities of Old Sudan and Nigeria

There are many lessons to be learnt from Sudan. Here are the many similarities and analogies to be drawn between the two countires:

• Both are British colonial projects.

• Old Sudan and Nigeria.

• Current Sudan and Northern Nigeria.

• Western Sudan (Dafur) and Middlebelt Nigeria.

• South Sudan and Southern Nigeria.

It's very possible that in a case of Nigeria split like in Old Sudan, across Northern Nigeria and Southern Nigeria, the current realities of Sudan would be a reflection of Northern Nigeria and South Sudan would largely reflect that Of Southern Nigeria.

Despite breakaway of Old Sudan into South Sudan and Sudan, interethnic conflict persists in the new Multiethnic and Multicultural South Sudan between the Semi nomadic ethnic Dinka and others, a very pointer of possibility of A Southern Nigeria as a country, it's a precipice of conflicts and clashes.

Terrified Sudanese on the run from Arab militias in Darfur - again

Fleeing for their lives from Arab militias on the rampage is nothing new for the Sudanese people escaping over the border into Chad - their exhausted faces encapsulate the devastation and suffering they have been experiencing over decades. [read more]

Foundations of a Nation

A nation is born from commonalities of groups that exist within its bounds. Observing the different nations of the world across different continents, a pattern emerges, especially in terms of the economic success and stability of such nations. [read more]

This can lead to renewed and further intensifying the Islamic Jihadi elements’ attacks across Sahel and West Africa.

Irrespective of today's realities of statehood, since after 1884/5 Berlin Conference when maps were drawn without contexts and consents of the indigenous people, Northern Nigeria belongs to the Sahel in all including geography, climate, demographic, religion, familiar relation and civilisational similarities.

Ethiopia and the unending conflict

Ethiopia’s conflict is nowhere near its end. The Ethiopian government led by Abiy Ahmed desires to centralize Ethiopia, a country which has been in a series of civil wars throughout its modern history. He wants the ethnic federations and their paramilitary forces like TPLF, ONLF, FANO etc. collapsed into the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) that already exists.

The Tigray war of 2020-2022 was the first in a series of conflicts plaguing Ethiopia. The situation within Amhara and Oromo regions has escalated into violent faceoff between regional paramilitary forces and the ENDF.

Other ethnicities now fear that in a centralized government, the tyranny of the majority would have happened, and Oromo, as the largest ethnicity in Ethiopia, which Abiy Ahmed is one, will dominate the country.

Tigray, which has been partially ethnically cleansed and victimized to this extent with over 600,000 lives lost in two years, has chosen to be an onlooking bystander. FANO, ENDF and the Eritrean Army, with the support of China, Turkey and Russian were able to suppress the Tigray Peoples Liberation Force (TPLF).

Ethiopia which was once a shining light on its way to success has become like Sudan, Chad, mali, Nigeria and other, a country that will spend the next few decades stagnated due to conflict directing resulting from ethnic & religious contradictions which they have failed to manage efficiently.

Ethiopia currently is having ethnic inspired warfare:

• The Oromo region between Oromos and the National Army.

• Out in the East between Oromos and Somalis.

• Tensions between Oromos and Hararis.

Nigeria isn't resistant to all the consequences that are playing Ethiopia and Sudan, and with just a little difference between it and them, the question many are contemplating is when will our turn come, as many agree it’s an inevitable reality at this point.