A glimpse into Africa’s future
History belongs to those willing to fight for what they desire. Either you have an agenda you’re assiduously working towards or others will use you to achieve theirs.
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Over the past few months, we have discussed topics including “The Rule-Based Order” — The Ajebutter Collective, Democracy: Faults & Contradictions, and If not autocracy or democracy, then what?. We also took time to explore The right to legitimacy, in an attempt to clarify who determines what is legitimate — the people or “the international community”.
As Africans, we have always desired success but due to the tragedy of history, we have had to look outside for possible examples to emulate. Today, we desire to emulate the successes of The West which may be an extension of our trauma or a case of Stockholm syndrome. But is this a realistic endeavour to undertake?
Achieving success across the continent has been a desire we hold for generations, a desire which grows with each passing day along with the scale of effort required to achieve it. But in all this time we have not taken the time to determine if, in achieving this success replicating the west is worth it, at what cost would it be, and if there are far better examples suitable for our soul to emulate.
We cannot plunder
Previously, in the article “The Rule-Based Order” — The Ajebutter Collective, we looked into the west’s interaction with Africa over the centuries and its implication on our reality today. We also discussed how the west achieved its success at the expense of our very soul and why to this day we subsidise their lifestyle by the way trade and the international system are configured with them as its primary focus.
The secret of the west’s success is not something so enigmatic beyond our imagination. To summarise, it’s us — Africans & the Global South (GS). There is a belief that the west’s success is due to the absence of human nature, some advanced process of thought & diplomacy, or an evolution of the human itself (Homo democratia). This belief is wrong, so fundamentally wrong that much discussion must be carried out on this in the future.
The west’s success is not due to any advanced thought process, out-thinking their problem/reality, the art of diplomacy or an evolution of the indigenous European into a new form of Man. At the root of the west’s success is a very simple process of plunder.
A 500+ years worth of plunder across Africa & the GS is the very root of their prosperity. Our experience living through the Age of Discovery, the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade, the institution of Settler Colonialism in South Africa, America, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, etc., and a campaign to enforce colonies on Indigenous Africans along the borders drawn in 1884, Berlin Conference where no single African was present to voice an opinion on either the act or the resulting arrangement needs to be recognised as a trauma/tragedy which still informs aspects of our reality today.
It is important to spend a few moments on the paragraph above to understand how we got to where we are, the trauma we are living and the crime against humanity still being legitimised today. This is crucial because every so often I run across Africans sometimes Yorùbá like me who take the Berlin borders as an act of god, and express desires for us to forget the past, move on and simply make things work by accepting reality as they are. I vehemently refuse such a reality.
I refuse because the past is as important as the present and as it informs the future. It allows you an expansive knowledge of your immediate environment ensuring you understand who your natural allies and likewise enemies (we all have one, to think otherwise is a fool’s errand) are. Understanding the past does not connote being trapped within it, rather, it reduces the likelihood of us repeating the same mistakes, a task we have failed at.
The absence of a self-critical analysis of our past from a perspective primary to our respective reality has led to decisions that are detrimental to our existence. Your perspective must be primary when evaluating past events because every so often people pass on European/other’s views, perspectives & analysis of history as theirs. Such inadequacies continue to lead to bad choices across all spheres of our life. These choices have ensured a regression of our society as we keep chasing European/external solutions designed to solve European/their issues without realising such are mostly inapplicable to us.
It does not apply to us because our reality, history, geography, culture, ideology and spirituality differ with zero correlations at times.
The west’s success is not due to any advanced thought process, out-thinking their problem/reality, the art of diplomacy or an evolution of the indigenous European into a new form of Man. At the root of the west’s success is a very simple process of plunder.
Absence of Human Nature?
It is far more affordable in the presence of abundance and leisure to set aside human nature. Therefore, Europeans act holier than thou due to having limited worries beyond strategising how to plunder & subjugate much of the world.
Taking France as a case study, recently, it began to experience a fuel crisis which continues to linger. As someone who has lived through this repeatedly all my life in Nigeria, it can get worse. The effect of this crisis coupled with dissatisfaction, protests and strikes preceding it on French society has led to an increase in tension across the country which has made Macron contemplate calling in the military, a drastic action for a “liberal democracy”. Of the many realities currently present in France, I would like us to consider the tweet below.
The tweet above is not an attempt to dwell on the current struggle of the French people — maybe there is a little satisfaction in having them experience a bit of the pain the rest of humanity deals with daily. Rather, to present the toll that these crises have had on the average french citizen over the years. Also, this signifies the presence of human nature in France as well.
Given equal circumstances, human actions devolve to their primal nature. For the French, human nature has begun to awaken from its long slumber. It is important to be aware that no amount of thought can overcome the frustration of queuing for hours if not days for a few litres of petrol. It’s easy to ignore human nature when there is an abundance of resources, prosperity and leisure. This state of overwhelming abundance makes some have illusions of being a better version of humanity compared to others, and postulate unrealistic idealistic concepts as to why the rest of humanity is stuck as they are. But, put them in a situation with a degree of scarcity of all things, and you’ll get this reaction — an expression of human nature.
The reveal from COVID till now is that Human Nature reigns supreme and Africa & the Global South are as human as the west. We simply lack in abundance and prosperity.
Africa's future is regional
A glimpse into Africa’s future is not for the faint-hearted. Much has been said over the past decade about Africa’s rising status which has become a missed opportunity. Though there is some progress sprinkled around, Africa has instead regressed on many indices over the past decades. None is more obvious than the backslide of West Africa (WA) and the Sahel, and how their future becomes increasingly bleak.
We have all had that moment where we had to state Africa is not a country/monolith. This is even more true now when looking ahead to what’s coming for the continent. I have come to understand Africa’s future is regional. A focus on regional development, nuances and history will do a lot of good for the continent’s progress & future.
Firstly, Africa is used across my writing as a substitute for Sub-Sahara Africa i.e the aspects of Africa south of the Sahara inhabited by indigenous ethnicities. Africa comprises different regions each with its own regional body whose role is to mediate the geopolitical terrain and trade relations among other responsibilities. It is across this divide our future will be determined.
A glimpse into Africa’s future is not for the faint-hearted … Africa has regressed on many indices over the past decades. None is more obvious than the backslide of West Africa (WA) and the Sahel, and how their future becomes increasingly bleak.
Africa’s future as it was in the past will be determined by its different regional groupings with a degree of independence from one another. Also crucial is how they can redefine trade, movement and security of the continent in the 21st century. This is because as a continent with such expansive land & human resources coveted by all, the scale of prosperity and industrialisation is too massive to be tackled as a collective concurrent outcome.
As in the past, our road to development, its meaning and purpose, and how we will achieve it will differ between regions. Each region is required to construct a vision for the future and strive with their all towards these goals which include the need to conquer navigation within the continent for inter-regional relations.
Of course, the best outcome will be for inter-regional trade, movement and network to be developed concurrently within a mutually beneficial framework. These are not a new proposition, but a restoration of what once was which was dismantled by alien marauders who forced upon us a framework which feeds exclusively their interests. The restoration of trade lines and familiar diplomatic relations on the continent will do us much good.
On West Africa & The Sahel
History belongs to those willing to fight for what they desire. Either you have an agenda you’re assiduously working towards or others will use you to achieve theirs.
I realised that focusing my attention on West Africa (WA) & the Sahel which are my primary concern serves a better purpose. Though, my opinions may possess a degree of adaptability to other regions and serve as a point of reference.
As in the past, our road to development, its meaning and purpose, and how we will achieve it will differ between regions. Each region is required to construct a vision for the future and strive with their all towards these goals which include the need to conquer navigation within the continent for inter-regional relations.
Recently, I observed the trajectory of WA & the Sahel towards overtaking the Middle East as the forgotten region of the world. A region filled with chaos and crisis for decades to come, a black hole of media coverage, poverty-stricken, forgotten and left to its fate.
There have been a series of events in these two regions in recent years including the rising case of attempted & successful military coups, different degrees of armed struggles by different groups, the rise in terrorism, and the relocation of jihadist organisations/networks to the regions. All these, coupled with a rising case of economic and political instability in Nigeria, West Africa’s supposed hegemon, and other states in the regions.
As the global geopolitical shift continues to intensify on multiple fronts including the economy and recent semiconductor restrictions, it is unlikely that the world has much attention to spare on us. If recent events are any indication, a complete focus on Ukraine to the detriment of other issues of equal or greater importance, like the Ethiopia-Tigray war, has proven once again where the heart and attention of the world lies and for whom they are ready to dare our collective nuclear annihilation. All these are realities we can neither run away from nor hope to wish away.
Likewise, the desire of the international community or their appetite is quite irrelevant to the developing reality. The possibility that either the west or the rest of the world will have enough attention or funds to spare for us in the face of the current global recession, food shortage, geopolitical realignment and other crises is practically non-existent. The most likely scenario is for us to be caged within the African subcontinent.
Recent development has shown desperation in the west to prepare against a migrant crisis. Western Europe and North Africa have developed measures and mechanisms to “contain” the situation. In addition to this is the fact that our relationship with the west has not changed much over the more than 5 centuries we’ve related with each other.
Africa has certain demographics and internal dynamics — which will lead to certain outcomes, and neither Europe nor the USA have the interest, nor the desire to commit resources to have any impact on these outcomes in the long run.
Also, the revolt of Francophone West Africa against the French shows a forced divestment from those who are considered traditional partners in the region. The new allies moving to the region in light of current geopolitical realities point more to a coming crisis and instability as we become a node in the challenge of “The Rule-Based Order”.
Crucially, it cannot be expected of those of us who live in these regions to accept the status quo — poverty & crisis-ridden — existence simply because we want to keep the alien overlords happy. Inherent contradictions instituted by the same group are the core of the current crisis escalating through the regions and much of Africa. It’s us living within these regions who will determine our fate regardless of what is affordable, preferred or appetising to any external entity.
As it was in the past when slaves on the plantation are not expected to consider either their master’s or any other’s appetite in their struggle for freedom, emancipation and dignity, so too will the appetite of the European or any external entity be of any consideration today.
I’ll have loved to hear the speeches given to slaves on the plantations back then on why their master and America didn’t want them to be free.
I think that what is West Africa and the Sahel need to be properly defined and delineated along with other realities. Currently, the map along the 1884 Berlin borders is a tragedy to behold, a crime against humanity which requires justice and effort towards restoration even today.
West Africa needs to also be properly reconstituted along familiar lines to optimise opportunity towards a prosperous, industrialised and developed future. We must not be crippled by fear of the past, as much as there was competition, it was healthy in a lot of ways.
Like Europe, with a redrawn border informed by historic and familiar relations of different groups coupled with trade policies, diplomacy and a degree of regional integration, we can achieve the success we’ve always dreamed of.
History belongs to those willing to fight for what they desire. Either you have an agenda you’re assiduously working towards or others will use you to achieve theirs.