Nigeria's Electoral Fallout - The Wish, Farce, Tragedy & Naivety
The political reality in nearly all multicultural or diverse societies can be likened to "Divide and Rule" as it was during colonisation. In Nigeria, we want diversity, but not its consequences.
The Nigerian elections have come and gone, while its consequences will remain with us for quite a long time. We will not attempt to dwell on the shenanigans that characterised the process or determine its legality or fairness as Nigeria has only performed to habit. Nothing new happened, nor were most developments surprising as they were largely expected. Free and fair have always been ephemeral ideals sought after through Nigeria’s electoral history.
Moreover, the current ruling party fixed the results in advance, even for local government, in all but a handful of states as part of an intra-elite deal, accidentally leaking (accurate) ‘results’ to the press a few days prior to the election. Some states, such as Rivers, Ogun, Oyo, and Ekiti, saw vote totals far above the number of registered voters. 2007 broke from 2003 in going from ‘competitive rigging’ to a vote-allocation, or ‘direct capture’. In addition, all stages of the elections were marked by extraordinarily high levels of political violence. 55 people died on the day of the elections and unofficial estimates for the whole electoral period were 200 deaths nationwide.
Though it should be noted that this round of elections, especially with a focus on the Yoruba section, was by far the most peaceful election held not only across the region but across Nigeria from its birth till date. Compared to 2003/7, the election can practically be declared peaceful and fair in comparison. Lagos, through this round of election, finally achieved its long-held dream to be aligned to the center. There are many interesting developments and realities that occurred/became apparent during this period.
History repeats itself, first as Tragedy, second as a Farce - Karl Marx
The Wish
Interests based politics has been a desire for Nigerians for decades, but as with all desires/wishes, when you realise it, it may not be as desirous as you thought it would be. It became quite intriguing to watch as the individuals who are the foremost proponents of this suffer meltdown on the Twitter timeline.
While opinions are divided on what to make of this development, it cannot be denied that Nigerians across the nation voted based on their interests. But what said interests are differs by individual, ethnicity and region.
In a way, this election can be seen as a referendum, a verdict if you may, on the so called indivisible and indissoluble union that is Nigeria and its contradictions. Because what the ballot came to represent was not simply the political parties or candidates running, but the existence and validity of a Nigerian.
During the recent gubernatorial polls in Lagos, a Nigerian candidate named Gbadebo Chinedu Rhodes-Vivor was rejected despite embodying the qualities of a true Nigerian. Throughout his campaign, he exhibited the characteristics and demeanor of a "detribalized" Nigerian. His utterances of “I don’t think in Yoruba”, the view expressed in the video below of Yoruba language being bigoted, and many more made his candidacy a pariah, which continues even now.
Politics is not for the faint-hearted.
It is important to understand that politics is, inherently, a field of combat, not for the faint-hearted. To engage in politics, one must have a strong-willed spirit for the evils, without limits, that will be wrought. However, to lead a people, it is essential to comprehend and address the concerns that matters to them, while also operating on their level. Statements that are dismissive, divisive, uninformed and erase the existence and truth of a people should be avoided at all costs.
Alas, a candidate may become an unsuitable choice if seen to not only fall short of all these but also to serve interests that are not aligned with the society they wish to govern and revive past wounds that they have worked hard to overcome.
Currently, those who identified as true detribalised Nigerians to be pained by the rejection and loss they suffered at the polls. The pain is not born simply of the loss itself but the realisation that they may well be a vocal, loud minority whose nuisance value has exceeded its tolerance level. A minority set who believes in jettisoning the indigenous civilisations in the likeness of the New World.
Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.
The wish for interest-based politics was granted and the interests the people desired have been expressed. To those pained, as self-proclaimed democrats, learn to respect a people for their choices, as that is a fundamental tenet of democracy. As it is ultimately about the wish of the people and their desire, not always what we believe to be best regardless of their views. We must learn to shed the paternalistic nature with which we view and relate to them.
The Farce
Previously in Democracy: Faults & Contradictions, we explained how democracy will inevitably be reduced to a popularity contest where knowledge, experience, and antecedence becomes largely irrelevant. This has been exemplified by the recent “democratic” exercise in Nigeria. It became an event of dogmatism on all sides, where personalities and their gravitas rule the day.
As with any other system, Democracy is also not without its faults and limitations. The most common criticism of democracy is its inevitable reduction to a popularity contest where knowledge, experience, and antecedence become largely irrelevant. At this point, the people have become hooked on the democratic drug and continue to reinforce the democratic tradition of voting in messiahs who regrettably turn out to be no better, if not worse, than those before them.
They fail to perform the required critical analysis of the system and its failings. The capacity to observe or consider other systems is largely absent by this point. As in Africa, the faith of such societies is stagnation and eventual irrelevance if they are lucky to avoid internal armed conflict between constituent groups.
In the events over the preceding months, it is quite clear that the fault lines of Nigeria are being exploited by some to wrestle power for the old guards. The old guards, masters of this craft, soon turn the tables around to come out the winner. That the old guards will become victorious is of no surprise, nor was it that the fault lines and contradictions of Nigeria will be exploited and widened in the process.
Once again, it needs to be noted none of this was not the least bit surprising. A working knowledge of Nigeria and its history will make this easily predictable and those who do not clairvoyant.
The Tragedy
It seems the worst of democracy is no more better than all other alternatives.
Another instance that was quite alarming is a widespread desire, including protest for military intervention in Nigeria’s, although appalling, democracy. The request of a coup if honoured will put Nigeria on the list of recent military dictatorship in West Africa & the Sahel. If this request is accepted, we will wish for Abacha 2.0 for decades. It seems the worst of democracy is no more better than all other alternatives.
The naivety on display by several liberals, their limitations to accepting a loss, and inability to accept reality, adjust and relate to it on its terms. Without this, so called “liberal” and “democrats” in Nigeria face an uphill battle to change what they see as deficient in Nigeria or any other country. We saw the same when in America, the “oldest democracy” in the world, during the overturn of roe vs wade and the January 6 capitol attack/protest (depending on the side of the divide you believe in).
A choice has been made, but many on all sides are left dissatisfied with the outcome. But as adults and supposed democrats, we have to take on the lesson and act better in the future. Conversely, taking steps to burn the house down simply because of a disagreement is how we keep digging a deeper hole for ourselves to crawl out of. The same reality existed through our contact with the Europeans until we were colonised. Like all other humans on earth, we need to get our hands into the dirt and keep working to challenge our difficulties by ourselves.
The above is one of the most fascinating development of recent events. The fundamental nature of democracy being predicated on choice is been intentionally erased. Although supposedly in good faith, it is said the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Is democracy a must?
If it is a non-negotiable and an absolute must for a people to practice democracy no matter the cost, then is that democratic?
How then is it better than whatever else we’re running from?
It is a must for people to be allowed to negotiate how they desire to be ruled. That is truly the fundamentals of being democratic and a further caution is passed in the tweet below.
For all its freedoms and tolerance, Democracy is quite intolerant of other forms of government and nations that don’t align with their democratic ideals.
In a democratic society, any individual who wishes to live through other systems is seen as an outcast. The view of democracy as the only valid and available means of being governed is commonly expressed. This is always a surprise because democracy, for all the freedom it grants, does not allow its masses the freedom from democracy which contradicts its inherent nature for a people to choose how they wish to be governed.
By its nature, democracy can lead to any form of government no matter how autocratic, monarchic, or otherwise, due to its desire to allow its people to choose how they choose to be governed. But this very same freedom is denied once the people show a desire to move away from it.
The fate of a people lies in their hands. They must decide for themselves how they wish to be governed based on what they consider relevant and rooted within their reality and history. Simply copying the system will not work because the internal contradictions of all groups are different, as we all neither occupy the same geography nor experience history from the same vantage point.
These well-educated individuals are examples of Nigeria’s future elites, leaders, and future decision makers if they have their way. In moments like this, the limitations of people are an important consideration, along with their folly.
The Naivety
Surprising as it may, Nigerians displayed a level of naivety such that I was awed for the first time in a long time. I was aware we had zero standards, but recent realities showed I may have underestimated how much we function in the negative.
Recently, Chimamanda Adichie wrote a piece on the hollowness of Nigeria’s democracy. Of the many arguments made in the piece, none is more striking than the call for the USA, ever ready for a democracy jihad, to intervene in Nigeria’s election outcome. It is disheartening to witness a renowned African writer, known for her feminist and anti-imperialist views, display a colonial mindset and seek to discredit and interfere in the democracy of an African nation by praying to an imperialist nation, a chronic interventionist at that.
It became apparent that a lot of individuals are afraid and sidestepping the truths and realities of Nigeria and recent events. It's almost as if we will be able to wish it away, someday, if we ignore it long enough. Though not limited to Nigeria, the political reality in nearly all modern multicultural or diverse societies can be likened to "Divide and Rule" as it was during colonisation. In Nigeria, we want diversity, but not its consequences.
Her actions are contradictory to her own values and beliefs. It is quite naive to look to the west for answers of which we have over 5 centuries of lived experience to extrapolate, an inevitable outcome, from. But in cases such as this of the many observed, the naivety on display is both intentional and expedient.
It became apparent that a lot of individuals are afraid and sidestepping the truths and realities of Nigeria and recent events. It's almost as if we will be able to wish it away, someday, if we ignore it long enough. Though not limited to Nigeria, the political reality in nearly all modern multicultural or diverse societies can be likened to "Divide and Rule" as it was during colonisation. In Nigeria, we want diversity, but not its consequences.
These actions are not only deeply naive, also extremely anti-democratic in its outlook. Trying to force a singular standard of democratic deliberation on the public. These are the stuff color revolutions are made of and its outcome has been observed time and time again across the globe.
They want democracy palatable to their taste.
Recent event has made apparent the continuous western democratic lecture internalised and evangelised by these “liberal democratic” individuals. They want democracy palatable to their taste. They spent an eternity advising a movement towards an interest-based politics but now are complaining it’s not the right kind of interest. Therefore, they now are calling on external nations to intervene and set things “right” on their behalf. Not sure if we can keep calling this naivety, as it's all too intentional.
We want diversity but not its consequences.
While some might take the thought “democracy can’t work in Africa” to an extreme, many Africans with a formal education have a textbook understanding of “democracy” based on Switzerland or similar Nordic/Western European society. Rather than acknowledge our collective reality and fashion a system that works in considerations of our contradictions and its consequences, we rather prefer to keep chasing dreams/ideas or in extreme cases long for a benevolent dictator, despite all contemporary consequences of that. It seems we will keep running away from reality until it consumes us all.
We forced out the colonialists, chased them away from our lands. Today, rather than take ownership of our reality, we rather call to them to intervene on our behalf. These are what color revolutions are made of.
Looking into the past, many such cases can be found of brothers inviting aliens to intervene on their behalf after a loss or defeat. In many such instances, this results in the intentional continuous instigation of chaos and arming of all sides against one another. It leads to the continuation of the conflict, resulting in the subjugation of all sides. In this spirit, the attempt to repeat of this history is not only sad and tragic, but may well commit us all into another round of eternal subjugation and its consequences, which we are all familiar with.
It is important to note - Democracy is not Liberalism. As liberal values can be the norm in a democratic society, so can any other values, either conservative, autocratic or otherwise. It’s all about the people’s will.
The Future
What is ahead for all regions and polity of the country is more challenges and continuation of a lot of the policies and realities that drove us to today. These are difficult realities to accept, but as the world increasingly falls deeper into a flux, we cannot escape its effect of our reality. After all we are not an island.
Also, going through Nigeria’s contemporary history and recent events, a cold war due to the implications of the just concluded elections seems to be ahead for Nigeria. As a continuation of the fallout of the previous round, a new fighter has entered the ring and positions changes.
For the next 8 years, we are likely to have a faceoff between the two regions who are masters of the media. It will be brutal and chaotic. Since the end of the elections, we've seen the foundations of the next phase of opposition politics laid out. We saw a little preamble about how things will play out. It will be a clash of giants of media narratives who are of equal strength.
Of course, the media doesn't win election, but it shapes narratives, mindset and either entrenches or dismantles stereotypes fuelled by political differences and reality. This will have far-reaching consequences in the real world, bridges will be burnt and it'll no longer be war between political class but the masses themselves.
This conflict is not new. Rather, there is simply a change in the sides facing off. None of the events that has/will take place during/after the election is not new, it is the reality of what Nigeria is which we cannot eternally bury or hide from. It is important to note this as, although emotions are high, the reality of what Nigeria is must still be defined within the realm of observable reality and truth.
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It is also important to note how the electoral map has changed since the end of the presidential elections. If the election is to be held today, with recent events, excesses and their implications, the voting pattern seen during that period would be largely unrecognisable today in some regions, especially the South West & the Middle belt.
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