On DragonBear and Multipolarity
A world of healthy competition between different poles of power will allow us the greatest opportunity to put an end to this era of Oríburúkú and escape our recurring, stagnant reality.
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Much has been written regards the DragonBear, a strategic alliance between Russia and China which has become a cemented reality.
Similar to any other defining moment in history, it caught a lot of “experts” by surprise. They declared a "no limits" partnership after it was brought to the fore on February 4th, the opening day of the 2022 Winter Olympics. This partnership has so far proven rooted in their shared promise to corporate against the West in different areas towards a common goal of reshaping the world towards multipolarity and to back one another over standoffs on Ukraine, Taiwan and beyond.
The profound era-defining relationship between these two behemoths has been shaped by a series of trials and tribulations experienced due to western hegemony. Over the years, this has led to the failure of diplomacy on multiple fronts among both parties and an eventual acceptance of the impossibility of achieving a compromise from the west.
More recently, the Special Military Operation that Russia undertook in Ukraine this February has led to a hardening of stance by the collective west against Russia. This hardline stance is increasingly being extended towards China and others who were seen as giving tacit support to Russia despite the illegality of the Special Military Operation which has come to be viewed as a blasphemous action by the collective west.
Of all the blasphemous groups, which at this point is more than 80% of the world, Africa is receiving special attention from our glorious (neo-) colonial masters.
To the powers that be, a sub-continent of over 1 billion souls is incapable of making an informed decision in its own best interest. The colonial ignorance of viewing Africa as a country once again made its way into the mainstream. We have been inundated with a series of tongue-lashing, preaching, warnings and commands to fall in line through different media and platforms, which has not shown any signs of abating.
To iterate for the infinite time, Africa is not a monolith. Our future is regional, our path is as differing today as it was through all arcs of history, and is no different from what it will be in the future. It is quite obvious across the continent that quite a lot of thought, interest, history, perspective, and understanding went into the initial largely centrist position on the unfolding shifting global geopolitical event.
This is not due to an incapacity to make a choice or a lack of understanding of the current realities and their implications. Rather, the decision to stay silent and as close to the centre as possible is born out of the initial sympathy felt for Ukraine’s situation, which became quite mixed and largely lost after the racism faced by our people while trying to escape the war.
War is not new on the continent or beyond. Likewise, famine, hunger, fuel crisis and more are realities that a large section of the world leaves with daily. Therefore, when looking at the situation, despite our understanding and sympathy, we see Russia’s actions similar to those taken by the west against the rest of humanity.
During the invasion of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and others, the full implications of the actions taken with the nod of both Nigeria and South Africa in the case of Libya may not have been completely appreciated. It is also likely that the consequence was viewed as a worthwhile expenditure regardless of who suffers from it. A price we will keep paying for decades to come.
Today we live and suffer the implications of those actions which led to open-air slave markets in Libya, in the likeness to those we assumed long forgotten. Also, like in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, there has been a rise in terror & jihadist groups across the continent, especially in West Africa and the Sahel as a direct result of Libya’s fall to ruin.
Therefore, the west has no right to preach righteousness to us. The precedence of recent actions was laid by you, while the rest of humanity had to suffer your brutality in silence. These rules were set by "the Rule-Based International Order", like in the case of Berlin. We had no say in them and through the centuries, we had no choice but to obey.
But the times are changing. Those same rules you flaunted for decades are now being used by others to justify actions against you. We know you can neither see the irony nor acknowledge an understanding of the current reality. Your dogmatism, as it was for past civilisations in your position, may lead to your fall and ultimate doom.
The Budding DragonBear Territory
The League of Disgruntled Nuclear Powers (LDNP) is organising and preparing for the inevitable to take back the power they once lost. I understand the impossibility of the west and its admirers to acknowledge this reality, the interests of others and their right to pursue it within the boundaries they’ve set for themselves.
Also, the fear and unwillingness of losing hegemony, the absolute power signified by the few decades of the unipolar moment which has passed, are quite glaring. We await how far you will go chasing down your precious.
This league is led by the DragonBear in addition to India possessing a level of importance just a bit below the two. Although holding different levels of significance, there are other tentacles in the league with nuclear capabilities, though with relatively negligible might if compared with the noted three. But with nukes, you only need one.
If you observe the Eurasia continental strip, you’ll notice essentially a continent on which virtually all core members of this group are located. Due to this reality, they have no choice but multipolarity. A tolerance of one another is the bedrock of the global multipolarity they are aiming for.
Unlike the West, Eurasia has no choice but to chase multipolarity. America is a sole continental power with no peers. Likewise, Europe has its two nuclear powers in UK and France. Eurasia not only has 6 nuclear power in Russia, China, India, Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan, but it also has Russia the world’s largest nuclear power and China as the de facto manufacturing backbone of the global economy.
Due to this reality, Eurasia has embarked on a journey of multipolarity not only in the challenge against western hegemony but also in tolerance of the nations in the region. With the growing capabilities of states like North Korea, the perceived reality of the pariah status of these states has led to the inability of the world to recognise the evolutions that have occurred beyond its consciousness. This evolution is on a collision course with the perceived reality of today.
The peripheral of these nations, in particular the DragonBear, are their territories - spheres of influence. They may have in the past seeded these to the West, but they would not suffer such a challenge any longer. As the West is unlikely to pull back on its escalatory actions, as we have seen in Ukraine, Taiwan’s fate is all but sealed. China views East Asia as its backyard and has taken more initiatives in recent years to court them and reinforce its hegemony in the region. The increasing attempts by the west to turn those states against China is an escalatory tactic being employed as a means to force China to act now.
LDNP should largely be able to secure their territories from the west, of course not in the absence of a challenge. Through courting Latin America, they may be able to work out a tacit understanding to respect each other’s sphere. The effectiveness of this attempt to threaten America in their backyard will determine much of this. That leaves Africa as a territory with talents up for grabs by all sides. This coming competition for Africa will test the limits of its contradictions and shape its future in ways so fundamental it may undo many of the realities instituted on the continent since the 19th century.
Beware the Dragon
Africans have a nauseating tendency to follow along with the West and its desires without much thought to what is best for themselves. We may not like China or Russia, but understanding the benefits and interests we have in their continued existence and functioning separate from emotions is important.
An example of this is the recent focus of "the Rule-Based Order" on China and its desire to cut it down to size. This after setting Russia up to fail through decades of intentional escalations in moving NATO to the east and ignoring the bear’s territory. Likewise, if this policy is successful against the dragon, it will cause our future to fall into a comatose state. This is not an exaggeration but a reality we’ll do well to accept as soon as possible.
Africans need to understand that despite over 500 years of interaction with the west, not much can be shown for it either in terms of growth, developments or across any indices you consider. Not much has changed on the subcontinent in any way meaningful enough towards our desire for a dignified existence. All growth, development and indices we can use for metrics are almost entirely captured within the interests of the west.
If China’s attempt at industrialisation and becoming the core factory of the world had failed, the affordability of most technology and luxury would still remain a dream. It must still be noted that China’s success is not altruistic. They made choices in the best interest of their people, which carried costs which they still pay today and will for decades to come. These costs suffered by China greatly benefited both the developed, developing and underdeveloped world.
As stated previously, beware of the dragon because in its anger, it can level the world. Recall China is the backbone of the world’s manufacturing and its absence during the lockdown was felt in almost every household on the planet.
Africans cheering the US and the West on are on a self-defeating path. When China is contained and unable to create cheaper alternatives for us, the lives we live that are already harsh will turn worse. Look into your home for items from China, there is no cheaper alternative.
The Drunken Bear?
As with bears who like to get high on fuel, Russia is perceived no different. It is common for Russia to be referred to as a gigantic gas station. But recent events have proven that to be a very simplistic false equivalence. Russia is more than just a gas station, it is a nuclear power with some of the highest technological attainment in human history, and not only possesses but is also central to the supply of a wide array of critical resources that our survival today depends on.
The western world sees Russia the same as a bear drunk on gasoline. As a classic case of “don’t get high on your own supply”, Russia has ensured to at least pull the world down the rabbit hole of equal addiction. We depend on Russia for 40 percent of our grain supplies and as of yet, no one has stepped up to fill the void, nor have we done what is needed to reduce such dependence by any marginal level. There are currently famine & floods which have significantly affected our current crop yields, whose effect will come in a few months.
In Europe, for the coming winter, the relevant warmth needed and the industrialisation beyond, there exists as of today no equivalent replacement for cheap Russian Gas. There exists no amount of coping that can make this reality irrelevant. They can decide to live with it but, it changes not the reality of a coming brutal winter and more so the territory beyond this is uncharted for centuries past.
Beyond grain and gas, Russia is a source of military equipment for many countries. They also provided critical resources needed for the world to achieve their desire to go green and manufacture much-needed critical types of equipment.
The President of Russia, through his speech as early as 2007, has been noted for his criticism of the unipolar world, a move towards multipolarity, the need for mutual respect of nations and the pragmatism to respect different civilisations. These points continue to feature in his speeches over the years until today. It became almost comical, but today its seriousness is not in doubt.
You may not like the messenger, but the message is one that cannot be challenged as it rings true of echoes from the depth of our souls. These are words we wish to say, pains we carry about, desires we are denied and recompense we seek.
Africa’s Interests in a Multipolar World.
We have written previously about what Africa’s future in the growing multipolar reality will be. As Africans, we are not concerned about the latest bad guy or collectivist thought decided upon by the west.
Also, this is not a call to support China or Russia over the west or a call to do the reverse. Rather, this is an attempt at providing clarification on our perspective while taking our needs and interest as primary.
We must pursue what is in our best interest, which at this point is a multipolar world. A world of healthy competition between different poles of power will allow us the greatest opportunity to put an end to this era of Oríburúkú and escape our recurring, stagnant reality. It will be chaotic with a lot of flux, but that is the price we have to pay for our future.
Therefore, to achieve this, China's industrial and technological achievement must neither be crippled nor destroyed. Also, Russia’s capacity as a giant in various sectors must not be shredded to pieces for pickings. These two nations among others including India and Iran, must be allowed to flourish. As challenging as this will be, this is a very difficult job which must be accomplished concurrently with other equally crucial tasks at stake.
Based on expert opinions, the ongoing battle of hegemony is expected to be a series of proxy wars of different sizes that will last a decade or two. As such, the continent will likely be a focal node for all sides to escalate without limits.
Finally, Africa will be faced with a difficult decision and sadly, we may not be afforded the option of non-alignment for long. Though, whatever decision we make will result in grave consequences for us. The coming months and years will force us to face the dreaded African question of the legitimacy of its colonial borders and states. This schism, which has been left unaddressed since the colonial exit from Africa, will be exploited by all sides. Frankly, it is too late for Africa to fix this schism.
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