One Nigeria - Lessons from Sudan and Ethiopia
Inability to manage the “Beauty in Diversity” of a state leads to sustained internal instability, civil wars, inter-ethnic conflicts, destabilization and open to interventions by external power play.
In history, time and time again, the over-centralisation of government in Multiethnic and Multicultural States has in time failed and led to chaos. The origins of the conflict are always the same - an overbearing centre that has failed to manage diversity, rather takes advantage of religious/ethnic differences for transient gains and regime security. This should be familiar to many Nigerians or other Africans.
Then, there's the external dimensions and players who, in their support, exploit different sides - be it ethnic or religious groups - for their geopolitical, economic, religious, racial, ethnic, national and even ideological interests.
Inability to manage the “Beauty in Diversity” of a state leads to sustained internal instability, which leaves a state weak and prone to civil wars, inter-ethnic conflicts, destabilization and interventions by external power play.
None of these requires any supernatural talent to divine. All it needs is a healthy appreciation and respect for history - both ancient and contemporary, and reality - as it is not as we desire it to be.
Sudan
The most recent violence broke out on 15 April between the leader of the army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who seized control of the government from al-Bashir in 2019, and the warlord Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, also called Hemedti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), also known by over the planned integration of the RSF, a paramilitary created by al-Bashir, into the regular army and their discontent with power-sharing modalities.
According to SBM Intelligence, because of the geopolitical reality, both military leaders have external supporters, Egypt backs Burhan, while the Saudis back Hemedti. There is also the suspicion that Russia, through PMC Wagner and the United States, have chosen sides. With about 100,000 strong, the RSF is unusually large for a paramilitary force, and it is well-equipped with American weapons, likely to have been supplied by the Saudis. It also got rich through funding from the European Union (EU). After the Land Cruiser War, millions of euros were paid to the Janjaweed by the EU to stop illegal migrants from reaching the Mediterranean, despite the group’s well-documented human rights abuses and genocide, even though for this reason, Al-Bashir has been in custody of ICC.
It's just a matter of time before Sudan metamorphosed from the battle-ridden country to a full-fledged nationwide civil war where many of the armed groups and disgruntled communal/ethnic militias, not under the control of the two key figures, to pick sides or fill the vacuums.
Most of the refugees from Sudan entering South Sudan won't stay there due to conflicts in South Sudan as well. Kenya, Chad, Ethiopia and Nigeria will probably be their final destinations. The distance from Al Junaynah border city in Sudan to North-East Nigeria, Maiduguri, is 200 km shorter than that of Lagos in the SouthWest to Maiduguri in the North-East within the same Nigeria geographic space.
The Sudanese crisis is making life in the already hard Sahel even harder. Chad, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Kenya are all at risk of being drawn into the conflict. Also, with the influx of displaced Sudanese into Nigeria - 5 million Felata (Fulani) people can trace their ancestry to Nigeria, the country is expected to experience demographic changes, rise in extreme religious ideas, and an increase in the proliferation of light and small arms across the Sahel and West Africa.
Similarities of Old Sudan and Nigeria
There are many lessons to be learnt from Sudan. Here are the many similarities and analogies to be drawn between the two countires:
Both are British colonial projects.
Old Sudan and Nigeria.
Current Sudan and Northern Nigeria.
Western Sudan (Dafur) and Middlebelt Nigeria.
South Sudan and Southern Nigeria.
It's very possible that in a case of Nigeria split like in Old Sudan, across Northern Nigeria and Southern Nigeria, the current realities of Sudan would be a reflection of Northern Nigeria and South Sudan would largely reflect that Of Southern Nigeria.
Despite breakaway of Old Sudan into South Sudan and Sudan, interethnic conflict persists in the new Multiethnic and Multicultural South Sudan between the Semi nomadic ethnic Dinka and others, a very pointer of possibility of A Southern Nigeria as a country, it's a precipice of conflicts and clashes.
Terrified Sudanese on the run from Arab militias in Darfur - again
Fleeing for their lives from Arab militias on the rampage is nothing new for the Sudanese people escaping over the border into Chad - their exhausted faces encapsulate the devastation and suffering they have been experiencing over decades. [read more]
Foundations of a Nation
A nation is born from commonalities of groups that exist within its bounds. Observing the different nations of the world across different continents, a pattern emerges, especially in terms of the economic success and stability of such nations. [read more]
This can lead to renewed and further intensifying the Islamic Jihadi elements’ attacks across Sahel and West Africa.
Irrespective of today's realities of statehood, since after 1884/5 Berlin Conference when maps were drawn without contexts and consents of the indigenous people, Northern Nigeria belongs to the Sahel in all including geography, climate, demographic, religion, familiar relation and civilisational similarities.
Ethiopia and the unending conflict
Ethiopia’s conflict is nowhere near its end. The Ethiopian government led by Abiy Ahmed desires to centralize Ethiopia, a country which has been in a series of civil wars throughout its modern history. He wants the ethnic federations and their paramilitary forces like TPLF, ONLF, FANO etc. collapsed into the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) that already exists.
The Tigray war of 2020-2022 was the first in a series of conflicts plaguing Ethiopia. The situation within Amhara and Oromo regions has escalated into violent faceoff between regional paramilitary forces and the ENDF.
Other ethnicities now fear that in a centralized government, the tyranny of the majority would have happened, and Oromo, as the largest ethnicity in Ethiopia, which Abiy Ahmed is one, will dominate the country.
Tigray, which has been partially ethnically cleansed and victimized to this extent with over 600,000 lives lost in two years, has chosen to be an onlooking bystander. FANO, ENDF and the Eritrean Army, with the support of China, Turkey and Russian were able to suppress the Tigray Peoples Liberation Force (TPLF).
Ethiopia which was once a shining light on its way to success has become like Sudan, Chad, mali, Nigeria and other, a country that will spend the next few decades stagnated due to conflict directing resulting from ethnic & religious contradictions which they have failed to manage efficiently.
Ethiopia currently is having ethnic inspired warfare:
The Oromo region between Oromos and the National Army.
Out in the East between Oromos and Somalis.
Tensions between Oromos and Hararis.
Nigeria isn't resistant to all the consequences that are playing Ethiopia and Sudan, and with just a little difference between it and them, the question many are contemplating is when will our turn come, as many agree it’s an inevitable reality at this point.